Author: Lanhu; Source: X, @lanhubiji

There is an interesting study that may subvert some of your views on the nature of BTC assets:

Although everyone has always said that BTC is digital gold, so far (it will be unclear in the future), BTC has shown a completely different market performance from gold.

One of them is that the market performance of BTC during the 60-day window after the black swan was even higher than gold + S&P500.

So far, BTC has outperformed gold +&SP500 in every major impact.

This may mean thatBTC’s resilience and performance are still underestimated.

This data comes from Mercado Bitcoin Research (led by Rony Szuster) + River Financial 60-day window data.

Performance during this time window:

• BTC average return: about +18% ~ +37% (some sample sets River data is ~18%, but all are significantly ahead)

• S&P500 average: about +3% ~ +3.5%

• Golden Average: about +4% ~ +6.2%

Specific data:

1. The conflict between the United States and Iran escalated in January 2020: Bitcoin’s 60-day return was about +20%, the S&P 500 fell by 7%, and gold rose by 6%. (River Financial data);

2. The outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020: Bitcoin rose by 21%, while gold and the S&P 500 were significantly lagging behind, with gold +3% and S&P +2%;

3. The Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022: Bitcoin rose by 15%, the S&P 500 rose by about 3%, and gold rose by 9% in some windows but overall lagged behind BTC. (River data l)

4. U.S. regional banking crisis in March 2023: Bitcoin rose 32%, the S&P 500 rose about 4%, and gold rose 11%. (River data)

5. After the announcement of US tariffs in April 2025: Bitcoin rose by 24% in the next 60 days, gold rose by 8%, and the S&P 500 rose by 4%. (Mercado Bitcoin Research)

6. Recent window related to the US-Iran conflict in 2026: Bitcoin has shown relative strength since the conflict escalated, with some reports showing a short-term rise of about 2.2%, while gold and the S&P 500 fell or lagged during this period (data is incomplete)

River Financial data analysis shows that in multiple similar events, Bitcoin's average 60-day return was significantly higher than the S&P 500's approximately 3% and gold's approximately 4%. In the overall sample, 100% of Bitcoin's returns were positive, and the consistency was extremely high.

Why did BTC show a “king rebound” after the black swan?

Rony Szuster’s opinion is:

In the early stages of a crisis, investors often sell assets quickly to obtain cash liquidity, which drags down various assets including gold. Bitcoin is no exception, often experiencing sharp short-term retracements.

However, in the subsequent 60 days, as expectations for policy easing or risk appetite return, Bitcoin is most sensitive to liquidity - its fixed supply and digital scarcity amplify resilience.

You cannot draw conclusions just by looking at the first few minutes of the crisis.

Bitcoin is not a traditional "slow safe haven asset", but a super rebound asset that seizes the greatest opportunity in the "panic → easing → rebound" chain.

It combines digital gold properties with high-beta growth characteristics, resulting in it leading in multiple events.

This study concluded:Bitcoin has been the best performing asset overall over the past decade, despite high volatility.

(One final note: the data samples are mainly black swan events after 2020. Although there is consistency, the number of samples is still limited. The past does not represent the future.)