Tao Zhu, Golden Finance

According to a report by the New York Times on March 29, local time, two U.S. military officials revealed that hundreds of U.S. special operations personnel have arrived in the Middle East, including Army Rangers and Navy SEALs, aiming to "provide more options" for U.S. military operations against Iran. According to reports, these special forces have not been assigned specific tasks, but as professional ground combat forces, they may participate in tasks related to the Strait of Hormuz, Khark Island or Iran's nuclear facilities.

Where will Iran go in the future? What is the future trend of the market?

1. Recent developments in conflicts in the Middle East

1. “Capture the Island” and Increase Troops

On March 29, local time, Trump expressed his hope to "seize Iran's oil resources" and may even occupy Khark Island, an important export hub.

"Honestly, my favorite thing to do is seize oil from Iran, but some stupid people in the United States say, 'Why would you do that?' But they are stupid people."

Hark Island was originally little known, but it became famous due to Trump’s threats during this war.

The total area of Khark Island is only 20 square kilometers. It is under the jurisdiction of the adjacent Bushehr Province. There are seaports and airports on the island.

In 2015, the terminal facilities on the island were operated by the National Iranian Oil Company. On March 13, the United States announced that it had bombed military facilities on Khark Island as part of the 2026 Iran War, but did not attack the oil infrastructure on the island.

The U.S. attack on this small but important island in the northern Gulf is tantamount to hitting the carotid artery of Iran's economy. 90% of Iran's crude oil is exported through the terminal on this island, and the crude oil is transported here through pipelines. Very large tankers - capable of carrying up to 85 million gallons of crude oil - can sail directly to the island's long trestle to load oil. Since the waters near the islands are deep enough, unlike the shallow waters along the coast of Iran, tankers can operate at the port.

As an Iranian oil export terminal, Khark Island is one of the important sources of income for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Corresponding to the "island seizing" plan mentioned above, Trump is increasing troops in Iran and does not rule out the possibility of conducting amphibious landing operations.

Trump has been stepping up the deployment of U.S. troops in the region, and the Pentagon has ordered the deployment of 10,000 highly trained soldiers responsible for seizing and controlling land. About 3,500 troops arrived in the area on Friday, including about 2,200 Marines. Another 2,200 Marines are on their way, while thousands of soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division have also been ordered to the area.

Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said that Iran will pour fire on any US military trying to enter Iranian territory. "The enemy is openly releasing negotiation signals, but secretly planning ground attacks."

2. "15 Armistice Requirements"

The official text of Trump’s 15-point peace plan has not been released, but a leaked version shows that the document simply compiles together all the demands that the United States and Israel have made against Iran over the years.

The document reads more like terms of surrender than a basis for negotiation.

The key points of the document include the US requesting Iran to promise never to develop nuclear weapons, not to conduct uranium enrichment activities in Iran, to give up supporting "proxies", to open the Strait of Hormuz and ensure it is a "free sea area", and to limit the number and range of ballistic missiles. In response, the United States will lift all sanctions on Iran and assist it in developing civilian nuclear power projects.

On March 30, Trump told reporters on the U.S. Air Force One plane that Iran had "met" "most" of the 15 ceasefire demands that the United States had previously made to Tehran, although it was unclear whether the two sides were actually engaging in substantive negotiations. "They've met most of our points. Why wouldn't they? We're going to ask for a few more," he said.

Publicly, Iran has clearly rejected the list of 15 ceasefire conditions and has instead proposed five of its own preconditions - including full control of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met over the weekend to try to find a way out of the conflict, but there has been no sign of substantial progress in the talks. After meeting with counterparts from various countries, Pakistan's Foreign Minister said: "Both Iran and the United States have expressed their trust in Pakistan and are willing to have Pakistan host follow-up negotiations." However, neither side has indicated that it is ready for direct dialogue.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagaei said: The relevant proposals submitted to Iran by the United States through the mediator are very extreme and unreasonable. Bagaei said in an interview with the media that day that these suggestions involve Iran’s basic rights and do not reflect goodwill or a serious diplomatic attitude. He also said that Iran must rely on its own capabilities to ensure security and will use all means to prevent another attack.

3. Clearance of the Strait of Hormuz

Trump said on the 29th that Iran allowed 10 Pakistani-flagged oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz last week, and the number has now increased to 20. He told the Financial Times that "these tankers have set sail and are heading straight through the middle of the strait." Qalibaf, Speaker of Iran's Islamic Parliament, approved the relevant decision.

When asked about Iran's plan to collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, "I have to confirm first whether this is true, but the United States can terminate this action very quickly." "We can do this in two minutes. We can do it so fast you'll feel dizzy."

Iran has actually set up "toll booths" and started charging fees. Foreign media quoted Lloyd's List Intelligence, a professional shipping data agency, as saying that since the 13th of this month, a number of global shipping companies have submitted documents recording detailed information such as cargo, shipowners, destinations, crew lists, etc. to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and obtained strait passage permission. Lloyd's List said at least two vessels had paid tolls in yuan.

Iran has begun to promote the institutionalization of the "toll" system. The Iranian parliament is currently formulating a relevant bill, which includes a plan to impose a toll of approximately US$2 million per vessel. Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported on the 27th that if this system is implemented, annual toll revenue may exceed US$100 billion. Before the war, about 120 ships passed through the strait every day.

2. Will the situation in Iran escalate?

1. Trump wants to seize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump is considering a plan that could involve U.S. troops entering Iran to seize its enriched uranium stockpile. If the plan goes ahead, it would mark a dramatic escalation of the situation.

Before the United States and Israel launched a series of air strikes on Iran in June last year, outsiders determined that Iran held more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium with a concentration of 60%, and nearly 200 kilograms of fissile material with a concentration of 20%, which can be quickly enriched to 90% weapons-grade uranium.

Former U.S. military officers and experts pointed out that if the U.S. military seizes Iran's highly enriched uranium by force, it will be an extremely complex and high-risk task that may lead to Iranian retaliation.

2. Trump will fall into a war of attrition

According to the BBC, if an agreement cannot be reached between the United States and Iran, Trump actually has few options: Trump can declare victory, claiming that the United States has destroyed Iran's military power, the task has been completed, and that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not his responsibility - this may trigger violent turbulence in global financial markets and shock his already dissatisfied European, Asian and Gulf allies. There is still plenty of room for a wounded and angry Iranian regime to further pressure the world economy.

In addition, the United States' move to increase its troops in Iran means that it is considering starting an amphibious landing operation. This may play into Iran's hands, as it hopes to drag the United States into a longer war of attrition.

3. Iran’s proxy war

Since the 1980s, Iranian leaders have sought to cultivate armed partners in Arab countries. Through Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, Palestinian armed groups in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen, Iran has built a destabilizing network that allows it to project its influence while avoiding direct armed conflict with Israel and the United States.

1) Lebanese Hezbollah

On March 29, Lebanese Hezbollah troops penetrated into northern Israel and are currently fighting in the Israeli-occupied areas of the Galilee. Israeli media reported that fierce clashes occurred near Kiryat Shmona and Metura, and multiple IDF posts were captured. The Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command ordered an immediate mass evacuation, resulting in the complete paralysis of southern roads. This is Hezbollah’s deepest advance into Israeli-occupied territories in its history.

It is an integrated military and political organization led by Lebanese Shiites. It is not only a legal political party, but also one of the strongest non-state armed forces in the Middle East. Israel invaded southern Lebanon in 1982, integrating Lebanese Shiite militias with direct support from Iran and Syria, and made its public debut in 1985.

2) Iraqi Shiite Militia

On March 29, the Iraqi Shiite militia "Blood Guardian Brigade" launched hundreds of attacks on US targets in Iraq and surrounding areas using drones and rockets.

The Iraqi Shiite militia is a paramilitary alliance dominated by Shiites in Iraq. It was incorporated by the government as part of the security forces in 2018, but it retains factional independence and pro-Iranian attributes. The Iraqi Shia militias have long been supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' "Quds Force" and are distributed in Iraq, Syria and other places.

3) Yemen’s Houthi armed forces

Yahya Saraya, spokesman for the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, said on the evening of the 28th that the organization used cruise missiles and drones to launch a second round of attacks on important targets in southern Israel. The Houthi military operations "will continue in the coming days" until the United States and Israel "cease their aggression."

The Houthis are an armed group that emerged from Yemen's years-long civil war to become the country's most powerful political force, able to disrupt international trade due to its location near a key shipping channel at the entrance to the Red Sea. The organization has about 20,000 armed personnel and represents the Zaydi sect of Shiite Islam. The Houthis initially began to gain widespread support from Yemen's Shiite population in the early 2000s. The United States accuses Iran of arming, funding and training the Houthis, but the Houthis deny being Iran's proxies but say they have political commonalities.

By building a proxy network covering Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and other places, Iran has formed a low-cost, deniable and highly flexible asymmetric combat system. This system is not only difficult to destroy by traditional military means, but can also continuously exert pressure on opponents in conflicts and turn it into an important bargaining chip in negotiations. As the Houthi armed forces, Hezbollah and other forces gradually intervene in the current conflict, the war is showing a trend of evolving from "inter-state conflict" to "cross-regional proxy war", and the impact on the global energy and shipping system will also be simultaneously amplified.

According to an analysis by The Guardian, the real significance of Yemen’s Houthi armed forces joining Iran’s war depends on whether it intends to launch several missiles and drones at Israel from a distance, or whether it will use its geographical advantage close to the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait to effectively block shipping in the Red Sea, just as Iran actually blocked the Strait of Hormuz. If both channels are affected at the same time, it will "seriously impact global trade and oil supply."

4. How long will it take for the war to end?

Trump emphasized that the indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran through Pakistan's "special envoy" are progressing smoothly. Trump has set April 6 as a deadline for Iran to accept a deal to end the war, otherwise the United States will launch an attack on its energy sector.

According to CBS, the White House privately told allies that it will take time to reach a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran. The United States estimates that the intense action of the war itself will continue for anothertwo to four weeks.

Iran is also skeptical of a shared timetable for an end to the fighting between the United States and Israel. The Israel Defense Forces have previously said that fighting is expected to continue until Passover, the first week of early April.

3. Subsequent market trends

1. Expectations of interest rate hikes

“Using ‘180-degree change’ to describe the recent changes in market expectations for the central bank’s monetary policy is insufficient.” Just a few weeks ago, the market was still expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times in 2026, but now it has clearly begun to price in a possible interest rate increase this year.

The latest data from CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of the federal funds rate being higher than the current range of 3.50%-3.75% by the end of this year is close to 30%, while the probability of interest rates falling has dropped to 2.9%.

This shift in expectations was driven primarily by inflation concerns stemming from energy markets. Since tensions in the Middle East escalated in late February, Brent crude oil prices have risen from about $70 a barrel to currently around $111. At the same time, long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields have also risen sharply, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield rising to about 4.40% from less than 4% a few weeks ago.

The "Crypto is Macro Now" newsletter stated: "Food and energy prices will unfortunately continue to rise and remain high for some time, at least until the shipping chaos in the Middle East is resolved. Even if a peace agreement is reached tomorrow (which is unlikely), it will take at least several months for relief."

2. "The Fourth Round of Oil Crisis"

On March 30, Zhang Chi, the former chief strategy officer of China International Finance Corporation, issued an article saying: Many investors always feel that this "U.S.-Iraq war" is similar to the "Russian-Ukrainian war". In fact, the comparability is low, especially in the global energy pattern and economic impact, where there is a big difference. At best, the "Russian-Ukrainian war" can only be regarded as a geopolitical conflict between energy countries, which corresponds to a partial reduction in supply. Moreover, Russia has left the U.S. swift system and still sells oil, so the impact is local and short-lived. However, the core of the "U.S.-Iraq war" is the Strait of Hormuz. The energy supply impact is not only on Iran, but also extends to the entire Gulf countries, which account for nearly 50% of energy reserves and more than 1/3 of energy output. Let me reiterate: the logic of the evolution of the "US-Iraq war" is not only the "exchange of interests between countries", but also a "religious war". Therefore, there are risks of protracted war, delaying war and escalating war. The "Strait of Hormuz" is the "trump card" in Iran's hands, and it will never let go of power easily - it can be understood that if Iran loses control of the "Strait of Hormuz", it is equivalent to losing this war! This is the “fourth round of oil crisis” that will gradually emerge under this round of “protracted war” that I proposed.

Zhang Chi said that the above-mentioned definition of the fourth round of oil crisis: "protracted war between the United States and Iran" and "long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz" have caused oil prices to remain high for a long time - this assumption is very critical and will directly determine the degree of impact on future global inflation, prosperity and asset prices. We compare the two "oil crises" in 1973 and 1978. The changes in the energy supply structure led to a longer period of high oil prices, even up to 2 to 3 years. However, in the "1990 Gulf War" and the "2003 Iraq War", the energy price rising periods did not exceed 6 months. —Obviously, whether this round of "U.S.-Iraq war" can have a "qualitative" impact on global inflation, prosperity and asset prices will depend on whether the period it affects high oil prices is long enough. In my judgment, there is such a risk.

3. Financial markets plummeted

On March 30, the market decline caused by the Iran war is evolving into a comprehensive collapse on Wall Street. The efforts of all parties to mediate ceasefires and restore oil supplies in the Middle East only resulted in further escalation of the situation, which in turn exacerbated market panic. The Nasdaq 100 index fell 1.9% in a single day on Friday alone, entering correction territory; the S&P 500 index closed down for the fifth consecutive week, setting a record for the longest losing streak since 2022; bond prices fell, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury benchmark interest rate closer to 5%.

BTC recorded a recent low of US$65,600 on March 28. As of press time, it has rebounded to US$67,574.38, a decrease of 1.4% on the 7th.

On March 30, Robert Kiyosaki, the author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," posted on social platforms that the continued expansion of national debt and additional currency issuance will drive upward inflation, and U.S. dollar savings will face continued depreciation pressure. At the same time, it believes that geopolitical conflicts may exist for a long time and form upward support for oil prices, thereby further exacerbating the inflationary environment; in the current context of global debt, currency and inflation, personal financial awareness and asset allocation are particularly critical, and are relatively optimistic about gold, silver, oil, food, and assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.