This is an "unofficial" column from within the Odaily editorial department. The author here shares his immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events and their side details; unfolds investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being verified - they may not be direct wealth codes, but may just be the problem itself; shares observations gained during exchanges with industry practitioners; and materials that have truly enhanced our knowledge, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are also experienced in losing money). Its purpose is only to expand perspectives and supplement sources of information, not to create consensus. Welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram communication group, X official account) to communicate, question and joke together.

Moni (@mich73692)

Introduction:Continue to work hard and continue to grow

Share: The listing of SpaceX first rose and then fell, attracting considerable attention. Some people believe that the short-term price is more driven by the IPO capital game, market sentiment, AI valuation logic, and institutional allocation, rather than the traditional valuation model. However, it is always felt that SpaceX is not a true "AI hot stock" (it was rushed to merge xAI and rub the concept of artificial intelligence before going public). At most, it is a technology aviation stock, so it is not optimistic in the long term. I tried buying U.S. stocks on Binance and it was relatively smooth (it is recommended to transfer funds through the wallet). However, in order to experience buying SpaceX at a price of $220, the results are predictable. It is initially judged that it will be difficult to rebound to the previous high before August.

According to the Kangbo cycle theory, if the release of ChatGPT is used as the starting point of the AI cycle, it is indeed the "early to mid-stage" of the cycle. Therefore, we are optimistic about U.S. stock sectors such as chips, storage, and photonics at this stage. Also according to the Compo cycle theory, if we take the birth of Bitcoin as the starting point, it seems to have gradually entered the "middle and late stages" of the cycle. Maybe the cryptocurrency market will have 1-2 more madness, but it may slowly move towards the third and fourth stages of Compo, just like the property market in 2015-2016.

golem (@web3_golem)

Introduction: The whims of golem

Share: Taking a look at the SPCX option position structure expiring this week, we can actually interpret something. SPCX options started trading on June 16. After the start of trading, the call options were bought significantly. Because SpaceX’s circulation is extremely low (4.2%), some analysts speculated that SPCX options would trigger a Gamma Squeeze to push up SPCX’s stock price after trading. Unfortunately, this did not happen, but instead SPCX plunges, shorts win.

Back to now, as shown in the figure, the current price of SPCX is around US$156, but the largest open interest is not on the Put side, but concentrated on calls of 170, 180, 200 or even 300 US dollars, especially near 180, where the highest bullish green pillar (over 16K) stands near 180. There is no doubt that with only 2 days left to expiry and no huge positive news, US$180 is the ceiling.

On the contrary, from a structural perspective, $150 is still the most important psychological and technical support level for SPCX. Once it falls, we must pay attention to whether the safety cushion of 140-145 can support it. At present, the support is still strong enough, but if Musk makes another aggressive move and the stock price breaks downward, triggering a negative Gamma effect, it will most likely fall below the issue price.

Looking at the chart, 160 is the current gaming point for bulls and bears. The long and short OI at the strike price of 160-165 is extremely dense. Considering that there are only 2 days left to expire, the market maker will probably "pin" the price here, double-killing the option buyer's premium.

However, after SPCX experienced continuous plummets, a large amount of funds are still betting on its sharp rebound in the short term. Therefore, if SPCX can effectively break through 165 and reach 170, there is also the possibility of triggering the Gamma Squeeze again.

In short, we still need to be vigilant in the current high OI area, especially not to open high leverage bets in the "awkward zone" of 155-160. Either wait for heavy volume to stabilize at 160, or wait patiently for a drop to 145-150.

However, there are always differences between analysis and operation. For example, yesterday I was obsessed with picking up SPCX at 145, but the lowest only fell to around 147, and the intraday fluctuation was as high as 165. Because of my obsession with low prices, I did not take advantage of this fluctuation.

Wenser（@wenser2010）

Introduction:Team boy, crypto soy sauce party, media observer

Share: 1. I never expected that strategy’s STRC preferred shares were actually a gameplay thought up by Saylor using AI. Judging from the current situation, “American Beanbao said: Sorry, this does have a death spiral problem.” As a bellwether for the entire industry, it currently looks like it needs to go through "currency selling desensitization" and BTC will completely fall below the 4w9 iron bottom before the next round of bull market can begin.

2. Recently, I have seen many people talking about the concepts of "old stocks" and "young stocks". I think many Chinese concept stocks fall into this category, and even "target stocks with Chinese characteristics" such as liquor stocks are not long-lived. It is better to play more "small stocks", cherish life, and stay away from old stocks.

3. After the first round of the World Cup group stage, the major teams finally regained their form. It is still the same strategy as before. Buying the championship prediction, the odds are still advantageous.

4. The Ethereum Foundation laid off employees + ETHlabs was established. Ethereum’s official organizational level has finally begun to take action, but it seems that it is not even making up for the situation. The price of ETH saw its previous low (around 890) during the year.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Introduction:Option enthusiast, Meme taker

Share: Recently, Ethereum has had several fundamental "benefits". First, several veteran researchers have set up an independent non-profit research and development institution called Ethlabs, and have acquired Joe Lubin (co-founder of Ethereum), Bitmine, and SharpLink. The goal of the support of these big players is to help Ethereum achieve institutional-level adoption and improve hard-core things such as expansion, settlement, and interoperability. Second, the Ethereum Foundation has also begun to "downsize" and gradually downplay its direct intervention role. The two things are combined, and the Ethereum ecosystem is becoming more and more decentralized. It no longer relies solely on the foundation. More smart minds can work independently, and the network will only get stronger and stronger.

To be honest, the current price of ETH looks a bit uncomfortable, and many people have bought it all the way from $4,000, losing a lot of opportunity costs. However, Ethereum’s fundamentals are actually very solid, but it’s just undervalued. In the long term, now is a good time to be patient and lay out.

Another thing worth paying attention to is SPCX. I personally plan to buy it in early July. When SPCX will be included in the Nasdaq-100 index, there will be a wave of buying. The position will be sold at the end of July, and the financial report will be released in August. It is not expected to be too optimistic.