Source: Maelstrom, a family office owned by Arthur Hayes; Translation: @金财经xz

Collector Crypt ("CC") tokenizes rated trading cards on the Solana chain and has achieved strong cash generation in this way: annualized profits in May were approximately US$53 million, equivalent to approximately US$109 million at the June operating rate, while its fully diluted valuation (FDV) was only approximately US$500 million. This demonstrates real product market fit, real cash flow, and rewards for holders beyond the crypto community. It is currently in a stage of ultra-rapid growth.

We are still in the early stages. The rotation of funds from eBay to CC has just begun, and since the token adopts the "first to go online on DEX" model, a large number of OTC funds are still waiting on the sidelines. Projects trading at one of the lowest valuation multiples in the industry have high venture-capital-like upside potential.

1. Positive expected value (EV) collection mode

Most of CC's profits come from its gashapon machines (digital card packs open). CC purchases physical trading cards in bulk at a discount of 5%-15%. Users have two options when opening a pack: keep the card, or sell it back to the platform immediately at a price 7%-15% lower than the market price. Most users sold back most of their common cards in order to get rare cards. This creates a powerful business model: users receive approximately 2% positive expected value (EV) when opening a package, while CC earns approximately 4.5% profit margin from this.

For a collector looking to build a $100,000 collection, the average number of cards available is $102,000. In addition to gashapon machines, users can also directly trade cards on the secondary market. Since CC launched its native market in late April, trading volume has grown explosively—its weekly aggregate trading volume peaked at nearly $650,000.

2. Subvert eBay

Stablecoins swallow up the cross-border payment market, and Hyperliquid takes over round-the-clock transactions. They all improved the efficiency of the incomplete Web2 process by 10 times and implemented it on the chain, thereby monetizing the released value. CC is doing the same thing with the trading card space. This is a huge opportunity: eBay generated record gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $222 billion and revenue of $31 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with collectibles being its single largest growth engine.

Currently most card transactions are still conducted through eBay. The total cost of selling a Pokémon card on eBay is as high as 16%-20% of the total sales. This includes standard closing fees (13.25%), fixed order surcharges, optional promotion fees, packaging and shipping. This is an extremely extractive market structure that comes with huge operational burdens.

CC is on a completely different level: It only charges 2%, settlement is instant, cards are held in insured escrow, and transactions are just a click away. This was a disruptive change that will seem obvious in hindsight.

3. Eye-catching operational data

Taking a $1,000 card pack as an example, Collector's comprehensive profit margin is approximately 5.14% (including 2% positive expected value EV and 93% repurchase rate); this can be used as a good approximation of the overall card pack's profit margin. After deducting incentive costs, the net profit margin remained at approximately 4.44%.

Last month, CC’s annualized total revenue reached US$1.2 billion, corresponding to annualized gashapon profits of US$54 million. In June, we are on track to achieve annualized total revenue of US$2.4 billion and annualized gashapon profits of US$109 million.

In addition to the gashapon business, other profit drivers include:

• Market fees: Secondary market transaction fees.

• Partner Income: Projects built on CC infrastructure.

• eBay Sniper: Allows collectors to use USDC to set maximum bids in eBay auctions.

Gashapon machines continue to introduce inventory onto the chain, and we are gradually approaching the critical point - when CC's on-chain liquidity will become competitive with eBay. What will follow will be a vertical explosion of secondary trading activities and handling fees.

4. The actual supply tightness is about 40% higher than the FDV implied level

Fully diluted valuation (FDV) is calculated based on a total supply of 2 billion coins. This greatly overestimates the final actual supply after all token unlocks are completed in September 2027. Over 50% of the total supply is allocated to the foundation and community, most of which will never enter circulation.

Community Section: Used to pay incentives. 2.5% is distributed at the Token Generation Event (TGE), and 0.75% is distributed to users every three months thereafter. As the token price rises, the team will slow down the distribution. Even under aggressive assumptions, only half of the community supply may be in circulation by September 2027.

Foundation Portion: For future recruitment and listing expenses. Given the profitability of the project, this part may not be used at all. Even under aggressive assumptions, only 30% of the supply may be in circulation by September 2027.

Even under aggressive assumptions, when all unlocking is completed, the actual number of tokens in effective circulation is only 1.3 billion. When you buy $CARDS at an FDV of $500 million and hold it until the end of all unlock periods, the valuation you actually bought is approximately $325 million.

5. Buyback

To date, CC has accumulated approximately $23 million in trading card inventory and approximately $10 million in cash. This cash is ready to be deployed on new growth opportunities and token buybacks.

The buyback has been started. On May 12, CC completed the acquisition of a pre-seed investor:

• CARDS aggregator 8373h paid $500,000 → Escrow account CQ4v5

• Pre-seed investor (GSR) 6rQG3 releases 4,045,013 CARDS → Fireblocks hosting GJFXM

• GJFXM sent 113 CARDS test → aggregator

• GJFXM delivered 4,044,900 CARDS → Aggregator

• Escrow account payment of US$500,000 → GJFX (settlement)

The move is clear and unambiguous - a custodial two-way settlement originating from the vault wallet. The team has probably also cleared out the locked-in seed investors.

Additionally, CC appears to have started making open market purchases since June 11th.

6. OTC funds are holding currency and waiting to see

Similar to Hyperliquid, CC refuses to pay high listing fees to centralized exchanges (CEX) and chooses the strategy of “listing on DEX first”. Although trading volume has improved, for OTC funds, the current liquidity is still not enough to build sizable positions.

Early entrants have begun bidding for CARDS over the counter (OTC), but the vast majority of investors paying attention to fundamentals are still on the sidelines.

7. The next big thing always looks like a toy at first

CC is more than just a trading card company. It is building financial infrastructure for an entirely new asset class. Trading cards and collectibles broadly have become emerging asset classes that are outperforming – but so far, institutional investors have been unable to participate compliantly.

Imagine you run a family office and want to allocate $10 million into trading cards. Would you go to eBay and place 10,000 orders to be shipped to the office? Obviously not. CC opens the door to a whole new group of market participants.

Watches, cars and wine – collectibles have long been a way for the wealthy to demonstrate status and identity. Trading cards are becoming a trend among younger buyers. As intergenerational wealth transfers begin to accelerate, trading cards are becoming the next major collectible category.

CC has built a rocket ship at the intersection of crypto and Pokémon with a small but dedicated user base. With about 800 daily active users, its profits have exceeded many giant companies in the encryption field. Currently, the team is expanding its business to more collectibles such as sports cards, and entering the Web 2.0 market. It’s already one of the most profitable companies in crypto — and that’s just the beginning.

MaelstromThe expected target price is: $4 before the end of this summer. Note: This article does not constitute investment advice. Be sure to do your own research.