This is an "unofficial" column from within the Odaily editorial department. The author here shares his immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events and their side details; unfolds investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being verified - they may not be direct wealth codes, but may just be the problem itself; shares observations gained during exchanges with industry practitioners; and materials that have truly enhanced our knowledge, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are also experienced in losing money). Its purpose is only to expand perspectives and supplement sources of information, not to create consensus. Welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram communication group, X official account) to communicate, question and joke together.

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Introduction:Cooking, learn more

Share: 1. The recent operations have been slightly more frequent than a while ago. Crypto took advantage of the decline in the past few days to make some small-scale copies (mainly BTC), but the starting position was generally high (6.2-6.6), so there was basically no profit; in the US stock market, it added a small amount of HOOD, the logic was already explained in the article written two days ago; in addition, it is playing the World Cup in the prediction market, while following small amounts and high-frequency orders (I am trying out a new tool, it feels good for the time being, I recommend trying it for a few more days) + large-scale low-frequency active orders.

2. HYPE has performed well recently, but now it is increasingly felt that "the more expensive HYPE is, the more detrimental it is to Hyperliquid". The reason is that Hyperliquid's most imaginative narrative before was to build a multi-type asset trading ecosystem around HIP-3, but now trade. HIP-3 has a pledge requirement of 500,000 HYPE to build a custom market, which is over $35 million at current prices). In the past, the market's imagination was "Hyperliquid + countless custom markets", but now the situation is "Hyperliquid + trade.

Suzz (@aidongshoupai)

Introduction:Just sold Hynix

Share:The market will never lack opportunities, but it will always lack calm capital and mentality. The capital market is perpetually flowing, and the market will not end just because a certain opportunity is missed. The short-term skyrocketing targets that were missed today, the trend sectors that were missed, and the bottom trends that were missed are just one of the countless opportunities in the market. The market operates day after day, with new and old themes alternating, and cycles of ups and downs. If you miss this bus, the next opportunity will come soon. Investment does not need to seize every market trend, we only need to seize opportunities within our own scope and with controllable risks. Obsessing with opportunities that have passed and being wrapped up in anxiety is itself the biggest trap in investing. Instead of being exhausted and exhausted, it is better to calm yourself, improve your cognition, and wait for the next opportunity that belongs to you.

In addition, when reviewing the past trading history, I discovered a very interesting phenomenon: when we look back from the perspective of hindsight, we will easily find that there are high-quality opportunities everywhere. Looking back at the market last year, last month, or even a few weeks ago, we can always clearly see which targets are at a low level, which tracks are about to explode, and which market trends are worthy of heavy positioning. It seems that profit opportunities were readily available everywhere.

But I fall into "rear-view mirror thinking" and always see the market clearly after the fact, but I am confused in the moment. In fact, this phenomenon just confirms a core truth: there are countless opportunities in history, and there is no shortage of opportunities in the present. Opportunities in the past have never disappeared, but we had insufficient knowledge and impetuous mentality at that time, unable to identify and dare not seize them; similarly, the market at this moment still contains countless investment opportunities of different levels and different risk levels.

golem (@web3_golem)

Introduction: The whims of golem

Share: On June 16, SpaceX announced that it had acquired Anysphere, the parent company of the AI programming tool Cursor, for $60 billion. This acquisition is essentially about taking what each needs. Musk needs Cursor’s developer data to train his AI model Grok, and Anysphere needs the huge computing power behind SpaceX to support training its own AI model Composer to compete with its former partner Anthropic model.

But in addition to the strategic significance for both parties, an easily overlooked detail of this acquisition is the impact on SpaceX's stock price, because Musk actually did not spend a penny, and all the funds for the acquisition of Cursor were paid with SpaceX's Class A common stock.

According to SEC filings, SpaceX will merge with Anysphere through its wholly-owned subsidiary X67 Inc., X67 Inc. will be merged into Anysphere, and Cursor will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of SpaceX as the surviving entity. Upon completion of the merger, all of Anysphere's common and preferred shares will be converted into shares of SpaceX Class A common stock at an exchange ratio calculated based on the volume-weighted average price for the seven consecutive trading days prior to closing.

Obviously, in this acquisition, Musk took a greater advantage. The method of paying with SpaceX shares allows Musk to take advantage of the company's extremely high market value at this stage and complete the acquisition with a relatively small share transfer. Therefore, the actual cost of the acquisition is much lower, and most of what is given is a bubble...

Then, here’s the key point. As of June 16, the two parties signed the merger agreement, and it was only three trading days before SpaceX went public. Therefore, the earliest delivery of the equity of both parties will occur next week. In order to complete the acquisition more cheaply and with less equity, will the "Musk interest group" take the initiative to stabilize SpaceX's transaction volume and market value at a high level?

Of course, there is no strong causal relationship between the two, it is just an analytical guess that affects SPCX’s stock price.

The current price of SPCX is mainly driven up by market sentiment. According to data from Vanda Track in the past few days, SpaceX is still the most sought after stock by retail investors, ranking first in the net inflows of retail investors in U.S. stocks for many consecutive days. However, the enthusiasm of retail investors will inevitably fade. "Faith" does not mean that there is no price. At that time, institutions will need to take over the baton and become the main force in stabilizing the price of SPCX.

Wenser（@wenser2010）

Introduction:Team boy, crypto soy sauce party, media observer

Share:1. BTC rebounded slightly, the situation between the United States and Iran has eased, and it is still bullish. 6w8-6w9 will consider opening short positions to test the water;

2. The SpaceX IPO ended, but the market value did not stabilize at US$2.2 trillion at the end of the day, with a loss of 10 U, but after being included in the Nasdaq in July, it saw more than 250;

3. Among the small stakes tests of the World Cup, there were more upsets or draws in the first two days of the group stage, especially the 0:0 match between Spain and Cape Verde. I guess many people jumped. The winning rate of the strong teams has increased in the past two days. Currently, we are optimistic about France, Argentina, Germany, and Norway, and we can focus on it in the future.

4. The Japanese and Korean stock markets continue to rise, and the trend of the strong is still obvious. The next landmark event is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates or the Anthropic/OpenAI IPO. I personally believe that Anthropic is expected to hit another largest IPO in history after SpaceX, and the market value has even jumped to 2-3 trillion US dollars. In the past two days, I saw a post shared by a group of friends saying "The AI ​​industry, like the real estate industry, is an asset-heavy industry", and I feel that it makes sense. Therefore, it is a good idea to make defensive investments in shovel sellers.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Introduction:Option enthusiast, Meme taker

Share: In terms of operation, last week HYPE fell to around 56 US dollars and took a long position on the right, and gradually sold after 70 US dollars. Selling is not unfavorable, but I think it is difficult to make a big breakthrough in the short term, but in the long term, 50 to 60 US dollars will become an important support range, and I plan to continue buying at this position for two reasons: First, in this wave of traditional asset on-chain transactions, Hyperliquid has basically received the biggest dividends, handling fees have continued to soar, and HYPE repurchase volume has increased sharply. The average monthly repurchase in the past six months has exceeded 60 million US dollars. It should be noted that 97-99% of the transaction fee income of theHyperliquid platform is directly used to repurchase HYPE in the open market. Currently, there should be no exchange that does this. This is also the biggest growth flywheel. The second reason is that after the HYPE spot ETF was listed, the cumulative net inflow was US$180 million, with an average daily net inflow of US$7.5 million. It is obvious to all that traditional funds favor HYPE, which is also a treatment that other crypto ETFs do not have after they are listed.

Regarding ETH, there is a very strange situation in the market now. Pure crypto investors are completely disappointed with ETH - because the price performance in the past few years has been very low, resulting in a loss of opportunity costs; traditional investors, especially Wall Streeters represented by Tom Lee, have continued to add real money to ETH, thinking that it is an undervalued "Amazon". Neither side can convince anyone, so let's give it time. I personally think that ETH has really fallen to a "cabbage price" at the moment, and your cost of getting on board now is even lower than Bitmine.