Author: Blockchain Knight; Source: X, @Knight_in_Block

In the past week,Bitcoin fell to $60,000, and the entire network liquidated billions of dollars. On the surface, it looks like a leverage cleanup, but the greater financial pressure behind it mainly comes from two directions, the pumping caused by the AI ​​explosion and the upcoming giant IPO.

About US$400 billion has poured into AI infrastructure in the past six months, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs have had a net outflow of approximately US$4 billion since mid-May.

This is not just a coincidence. Bitcoin and AI stocks compete for the same batch of speculative funds. When Nvidia and the semiconductor sector have risen by 170% in a year, and Bitcoin has fallen by 40% in the same period, fund managers will naturally make rational choices.

For example, on June 3, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 5.9%, and Bitcoin fell by 4% that day. It can be clearly seen that the same money was withdrawn from the encryption market and chased AI.

From February to May this year, Bitcoin futures positions rebounded from 31 billion to 51 billion US dollars, and traders increased leverage again. As a result, once the price turned around, the bulls were severely liquidated and stamped out.

And more troublesome things are still on the way. OpenAI has secretly submitted S-1 and aims to go public in September with a valuation of up to US$1 trillion; SpaceX plans to raise US$75 billion with a valuation of US$1.75 trillion; Anthropic has also followed suit.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the size of U.S. IPOs in 2026 may reach $160 billion, setting a record.

If these giant IPOs come true, they will become a super pump. Institutional allocators are making a choice, should they continue to hold Bitcoin ETFs or free up money to participate in the innovation of SpaceX and OpenAI? The latter has revenue, stories, and quarterly financial reports, although it is also high risk and high reward.

Some data have already given warning. In the first week of June, another $1.7 billion was lost from Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT recorded its second-largest single-day outflow in history, at $528 million. Many analysts believe that institutions are balancing funds and selling BTC to buy AI.

If we have optimistic predictions, the IPO will be successfully issued, market risk appetite will be overwhelming, and sentiment will be contagious. Bitcoin, as a high-beta target, may benefit again and promote the return of ETF funds.

Another pessimistic scenario is that the AI giant absorbs all speculative capital, Bitcoin loses its role as the darling of capital, ETFs continue to lose blood, and prices will continue to be under pressure.

Of course,If the Federal Reserve fails to cut interest rates, the high valuation of AI and technology IPOs will be severely beaten together, and Bitcoin will be dragged down.

So, Bitcoin is now in an awkward position. The long-term narrative has not changed, but short-term funds are being taken away by AI and IPOs.

The liquidation wave in the past few weeks has cleaned up part of the leverage, and the positions and funding rates have come down. This provides a technical basis for a possible subsequent rebound, but the key is, will the capital rotation stop?

If ETF outflows slow down and turn into inflows in the next few weeks, Bitcoin may return to $75,000. If the OpenAI roadshow is popular, SpaceX is oversubscribed, and the Bitcoin ETF is still bleeding, then $60,000 may not be the bottom of this round of decline.

If Bitcoin wants to turn around, it must prove that it is more attractive than the AI narrative But looking at it now, we have to admit that this is difficult. After all, when a truck starts running, it requires extremely strong resistance to stop it. Obviously Bitcoin is not that onion yet.