Author: DeFi Investor Translator: Shan Oppa, Golden Finance

The overall Bitcoin market is under pressure this week and the trend is bleak.

But the valuable thing about the bear market is that it contains investment opportunities that can change your life. Looking back at the two bear markets in 2018 and 2022, it is not difficult to find that if you dare to go against the trend when the market falls into collective panic, you can often reap huge rewards in the follow-up.

Earlier this year, I shared my predictions and allocation ideas for the market in 2026. At that time, my judgment on the pace of the market outlook was as follows:

1. March ushered in a slight rebound, and the market once again collectively turned optimistic;

2. The market returned to the downward channel from April to May;

3. A historic bottom was reached from the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter;

4. In the following months, the market went sideways and bottomed out, and the market was filled with pessimistic views that "the encryption industry is dead";

5. A new round of bull market will start from the end of 2026 to the beginning of the next year.

Now that the market is gradually conforming to the previous prediction, it is a good time to update my thinking and talk about the subsequent trend of Bitcoin in my eyes, as well as the current practical configuration plan.

1. The logic of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle still holds true

From a fundamental perspective, the four-year bull-bear cycle theory is inevitably questioned, which is why many investors do not recognize this set of rules. However, the past historical trends are before our eyes: In the three years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin has gone through a highly similar market: about one year after the halving bull market peaked, the lowest point of this cycle was found.

Based on the historical return chart data provided by Benjamin Cowen, judging from the mid-term bear market return trend over the years, Bitcoin is still running along the classic four-year cycle trajectory.

Of course, this does not mean that this round of decline will replicate previous bear markets. Throughout history, the depth of decline in each bear market is weaker than the previous one. Based on historical patterns, I predict that the bottom of this cycle will most likely fall in September-October. Data over the past years show that in the mid-term bear market, Bitcoin often finds its bottom in the fourth quarter, and there are currently no fundamental signals that break the historical pattern.

However, accurate bottom-picking and top-picking is a misunderstanding in itself. In 2022, many investors who were firmly optimistic about Bitcoin stuck to their entry target of US$14,000 and missed the low price of US$16,000. Since then, the price of the currency has never fallen back to US$14,000. In the end, the entire super bull market has been short-lived and it has missed the all-time high. I didn’t want to make the same mistake again, so I formulated a plan to build positions in batches.

2. Current practical buying plan

In my opinion, everything below $65,000 is a high-quality fixed investment range for Bitcoin. Even if the bottom has not yet hit the ground, as long as the currency price continues to be below $65,000, I will start small daily fixed investments and hoard coins in batches this week.

No one can accurately predict the subsequent market trend, so I still keep most of the stablecoins and wait for the fourth quarter to come when the market is close to the bottom. However, at the same time, I invest in small amounts at the lower price in batches to avoid the risk of making mistakes in my prediction and hitting the bottom in advance.

The deeper the price falls and the closer it gets to $50,000, the larger my long position will be. I regard $50,000 as a key support: once Bitcoin falls below $60,000, $50,000 is very likely to be the bottom center of this round.

Except for extreme black swan situations: If there is a bankruptcy of a leading institution similar to the FTX thunderstorm in 2022, or a systemic collapse of the US stock market drags down the entire market, the currency price may drop to $40,000 in the worst case scenario. But I won’t wait for the price of $40,000. I would rather invest in advance at a slightly higher price than bet on an extreme low that has a high probability of not being realized.

At the latest by the end of November 2026, I will exchange all the idle stablecoins in my hands for Bitcoin. The probability of the market continuing to decline deeply by then is very slim. I will dilute the holding costs through batch layout and get a good average price.

About altcoin configuration

I will gradually deploy some altcoins after the market stabilizes. Comparing the previous bull and bear cycle, it is not difficult to see: Investors who bought Bitcoin at $16,000–20,000 in 2022 and held it for a long time had final returns that outperformed 95% of traders who frequently bought and sold altcoins. The essence of investing is simplicity, and you can outperform most market participants without complicated trading strategies. At this stage, priority is given to placing heavy positions in Bitcoin, and after various altcoins show clear signs of strength, they will then deploy altcoins on a large scale.

The encryption industry will eventually rebound, just keep your confidence.