Author: Blockchain Knight; Source: X, @Knight_in_Block

The CLARITY Act, which aims to clarify the regulatory authority of digital assets in the United States, was recently passed by the Senate Banking Committee by 15 to 9, but the prospects for subsequent passage are not optimistic.

The Republican Party has 53 seats, and 60 votes are needed to end the debate, which means that even if all Republicans support it, they still need to win over 7 Democratic or independent members. Only two Democrats on the committee have voted in favor, at least five votes short of the goal.

The White House hopes to push the bill to be signed into law before July 4, but the actual voting window is compressed to June. If Senate leadership fails to schedule a floor vote by the third week of June, the July 4 goal will be elusive.

In addition, the bill faces three objections: Democrats believe that the anti-Xl money provisions have loopholes; the ethics provisions prohibit officials from profiting from encryption projects they participate in; the banking industry warns that stable currency reward provisions may absorb deposits from community banks and affect local lending capabilities.

If the above disputes cannot be resolved, the bill may miss the June window. The mid-term elections in November will change the structure of the two houses of Congress, and it will only be more difficult to pass similar legislation by then.

Industry insiders pointed out that the current encryption industry has the most friendly regulatory environment in ten years. SEC Chairman Atkins, CFTC and the White House are all supportive. However, these administrative-level arrangements can be overturned by the next government, and only congressional legislation can provide a lasting framework.

At the same time,JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently made it clear that the banking industry will not accept the current version of the bill.

He pointed out on Fox Business Channel that the bill actually allows crypto companies to pay interest on customer deposits and stablecoin balances, which directly competes with banks’ traditional deposit business.

He also criticized the bill for not subjecting crypto service providers to the same anti-Xl money, Bank Secrecy Act and capital reserve requirements as banks.

Dimon’s solution is simple: If crypto companies want to offer interest-bearing accounts, they should first obtain a banking license and abide by the same rules.

Dimon specifically named Coinbase and its CEO, who have been actively lobbying Congress to promote the bill. Coinbase has reportedly spent hundreds of millions of dollars in Washington. Dimon acknowledged that banks may lose the game but said the opposition would not back down.

Affected by the above-mentioned uncertainty,Forecast markets show that the probability of the bill becoming law within this year has dropped from 68% to 59% after the Senate committee vote.

The bill still needs to be passed by the full Senate, reconciled with the House version, and signed by the president. The crypto industry hopes to complete the legislation before the end of the year, but tight votes, strong lobbying by banks, and the narrowing political window before the midterm elections make this vision face greater uncertainty.