Author: FinSpy Insights Source: X, @FinSpy_

According to the latest real-time data from various treasury companies, the mNAV (market value to net asset value ratio) of publicly listed Bitcoin treasury companies around the world in May 2026 showed a significant divergence trend of "significant compression of premiums, leading companies approaching critical points, and deep discounts for some small and medium-sized treasury companies and mining companies."

With the current price of Bitcoin consolidating in the range of $75,300 to $77,250, the total market value of publicly listed companies' positions is approximately $95.21 billion to $96.57 billion. The latest mNAV core trends and data characteristics are:

Three core characteristics of the current mNAV trend

1. The world is generally facing “Compression”

Compared with the high premium of 2x to 3x when Bitcoin surged at the end of 2025, the mNAV indicator in May 2026 showed an overall mean reversion. The main reason is that the scale of spot Bitcoin ETFs has officially exceeded 100 billion US dollars, which has diverted traditional capital, resulting in fewer investors buying treasury company stocks purely to gain exposure to Bitcoin, and the market no longer blindly gives high premiums.

2. Small and medium-sized financial companies fall into "deep discount (mNAV < 1)"

Data shows that the mNAV of low-ranking traditional small and medium-sized enterprises (such as Bitcoin Standard Treasury’s mNAV is only 0.21x) and some crypto mining companies that have not transformed smoothly has fallen below 1. This means that the company's overall stock market value has been lower than the actual value of its inventory of Bitcoins, and there has been a serious "fair value discount". Investors would rather buy spot directly than hold its shares.

3. Structural changes in market measurement indicators

According to the expert consensus at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference, the market’s assessment of treasury companies is changing: “Bitcoin-per-share” and pure mNAV premium are no longer the only criteria. Investors now pay more attention to management's capital operation capabilities (such as MSTR's debt management) and whether the company has traditional complementary businesses that can generate real dollar cash flow (such as AI data centers) to support Bitcoin's leverage operation.

MicroStrategy ($MSTR) mNAV Historical Panoramic Interpretation

From this long-term diluted mNAV (market value/Bitcoin net asset ratio) trend chart, we can clearly see the entire evolution of micro-strategy from "crazy speculation" to "rational normalization":

Source: mNAV

2020–2021 (crazy period): mNAV spiked to 4x–8x [1, 2]. At that time, the market was extremely lacking in compliance channels, and traditional funds were willing to pay several times the "voucher premium" to hold Bitcoin indirectly.

2021–2023 (bear market bottom): Bubble burst, premium peeling off, mNAV stuck in the rational range of 1.0x–1.5x sideways for a long time.

2024–2025 (Flywheel Reborn): In a new round of bull market, micro-strategy has perfectly played the capital flywheel of "fiat currency arbitrage buying" through high-frequency issuance of low-interest convertible bonds, and mNAV has surged higher again.

2026 to present (normal in the ETF era): The far right side of the chart shows a historic scene - the premium is extremely smooth and falls back to 1.25x. The era of blind speculation that frequently multiplied prices is completely over, and mean reversion has become a foregone conclusion.

Core conclusion: Rules of survival in the 1.25x era

1. The “price anchoring” of spot ETFs squeezes out the bubble

With the scale of Bitcoin spot ETF exceeding 100 billion US dollars, the market no longer lacks compliance channels. $MSTR lost its exclusive scarcity as the “only Bitcoin alternative stock”, forcing mNAV to undergo structural compression and move closer to rational fundamentals of 1.0x–1.3x.

2. 1.25x is approaching the "capital lifeline" of micro-strategy

Historical data shows that the critical point for micro-strategy to buy coins through stock issuance/bond issuance arbitrage is around 1.22x mNAV:

Current 1.25x: The premium space has been extremely narrow, the marginal effect of issuing new shares and buying coins has declined significantly, and the boost to shareholders’ “bitcoin content per share” has become minimal.

Strategic shift: This also explains why micro-strategies have made frequent moves recently and have begun to spend huge sums of money to repurchase convertible bonds at a discounted cash. The company's management has clearly realized that now is not the time to aggressively increase its position in Bitcoin, but rather a key window for financial defense and balance sheet optimization.

Conclusion

The micro-strategy of the future is no longer the "Bitcoin amplifier" that is bought with eyes closed, but the "crypto central bank" that truly tests the management's top capital operation skills.