Author: Wednesday, Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Wave Introduction: The last round of negotiations between Samsung Electronics and the union officially broke down on May 13, and a strike of 40,000 people will start on May 21. A large number of bullish posts on Micron Technology (MU) emerged in the Reddit community (WallStreetBets channel). The core argument is that there are only three companies in the world that can produce HBM4, and one of them will stop production for 18 days. Micron, as the only supplier with a domestic factory in the United States, will be the biggest beneficiary.

Micron's stock price has soared by about 140% in the past month. Deutsche Bank gave a target price of US$1,000, and retail investors even called for US$1,300. But this is essentially a "binary bet": once the strike is resolved, the logic of the surge may be reversed in an instant.

Samsung Electronics labor negotiations officially broke down on May 13, and an 18-day strike involving more than 40,000 employees has entered the countdown.

This news quickly ignited the enthusiasm of the U.S. retail investor community for trading in the memory chip supply chain, with Micron Technology (Micron, NASDAQ: MU) becoming the focus of discussion.

Reddit community hot post: "Micron is the purest target for Samsung's strike"

A post published in the US stock market quickly received more than 500 likes, and the title directly shouted "MU is the cleanest play on the imminent Samsung strike" (Micron is the purest trading target in the upcoming Samsung strike).

The core argument of the post author willbabu can be broken down into four levels:

First, HBM4 is the biggest bottleneck of the entire AI infrastructure. Only three companies in the world can build it: Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. Once Samsung is shut down for 18 days, it will take weeks rather than days to reset the production lines, and the actual impact will be far longer than 18 days.

Second, although SK Hynix is the leader in the HBM field, its DRAM, NAND and HBM production capacity has all been locked to NVIDIA at contract prices until the end of 2026. When spot prices soared, it had "no goods to sell." Micron is also sold out on HBM until 2026, but the difference is: if Samsung suspends production for 18 days, spot DRAM and NAND prices will soar, while Micron has more standard DRAM and NAND production capacity than SK Hynix, and can directly benefit from the price increase.

Third, Micron has structural advantages that SK Hynix does not have: a local factory in the United States (located in Boise, Idaho), zero Korean labor risk exposure, and no Korean chaebol governance discount. The original text of the post is very straightforward: "If you were a hyperscale cloud manufacturer and were in urgent need of memory chips during the strike, would you call someone in Boise who could deliver the goods, or would you call someone in Pyeongtaek who couldn't deliver the goods?"

Fourth, Micron is directly listed on the U.S. exchange, while U.S. retail investors can only hold SK Hynix indirectly through ETFs. This "asymmetric accessibility" means that when the Samsung strike trade spreads among retail investors, money will flow disproportionately into Micron.

The author of the post disclosed a position of 1,200 shares (average price $464) plus 100 shares (average price $381), with a target price of $1,300. The calculation logic is: HBM's business maintains a gross profit margin of about 80%, and its proportion of revenue continues to rise. Mixed earnings per share (EPS) will easily exceed US$80, and the forward price-earnings ratio corresponding to US$1,300 is only about 16 times.

Samsung negotiations broke down and the strike entered the final countdown

The excitement in the retail community has its basis in reality.

According to the Korea Times report on May 13, the last round of mediation negotiations between Samsung Electronics and its largest labor union officially broke down that day. The union demanded that Samsung allocate 15% of operating profits as employee bonuses and write them into the labor contract. Samsung's 10% plan was rejected. The two sides have sharp differences on the distribution of AI-related performance bonuses.

The strike, scheduled for May 21 to June 7, involves more than 40,000 employees, the vast majority in the semiconductor manufacturing sector. The cost of the strike could reach 1 trillion won (about $671 million) a day, the Korea Times cited analysts as estimating. Samsung has filed an injunction application with the Suwon District Court in an attempt to stop the strike, and a ruling is expected to be issued before the strike begins.

According to research by Jefferies, the strike may affect about 3% of global memory chip production capacity. JP Morgan estimates that Samsung's full-year operating profit may be reduced by more than 40 trillion won as a result. What's more serious is that a prolonged production suspension may cause Samsung to lose key customers such as Nvidia.

Micron surged 140% in one month, with huge differences in target prices between institutions and retail investors

The market is already pricing in this supply shock.

Micron's stock price has soared from a low of about US$310 in March, hitting a 52-week high of US$818.67 on May 11, an increase of about 140% in a month, and a market value of more than US$900 billion. There was a pullback on May 12 to around $766. According to Yahoo Finance data, Micron's revenue in the last fiscal quarter (Q2 of fiscal year 2026) reached US$23.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 196%, and earnings per share were US$12.20, exceeding expectations by 32.8%.

On the institutional side, Deutsche Bank raised its target price on Micron to $1,000, the highest on Wall Street. Analyst Sidney Ho believes that AI-driven HBM demand is a structural trend and supply constraints may continue until 2028.

But Wall Street’s consensus price target is just $581.89, significantly lower than the current share price, reflecting institutional disagreement over the current valuation. The $1,300 target price shouted by retail investors on WallStreetBets far exceeded any institutional forecast.

Core risk: reconciliation means reversal

The biggest risk with this trade is also clear: it is essentially a binary bet.

Ainvest's analysis pointed out that Micron's stock price soared 75% in one month (the time window corresponding to this data is slightly earlier than the latest increase). Once the Samsung strike ends in settlement, the stock price faces the risk of a violent reversal. JPMorgan Chase also reminded investors that the final result of the labor dispute will be a "clearing event" in the current market. Before that, the risk of directional bets is extremely high.

The memory chip market itself is highly cyclical. Even without the strike, memory contract prices are already expected to rise about 60% this year. If a strike occurs, it will add another layer of impact to already tight supply and demand; if it does not occur, the market needs to reassess how much "strike premium" is included in current pricing.

It is still possible for Samsung to reach a final agreement before May 21, although the probability is currently low.