Recently, after BTC once returned to US$80,000, market enthusiasm has revived. What will be the trend of Bitcoin in the second half of this year? The four major AIs gave their own insights and analysis.

Kimi’s opinion: Bitcoin may be difficult to break the previous high in the second half of 2026

The base scenario is: From Q2 to Q3 of 2026, BTC will maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the range of US$80,000 to US$95,000. During this period, it may briefly test US$100,000 with the help of event catalysts (such as the easing of the situation in the Middle East and the announcement of a position by a large institution), but it will not be able to stand firm. Entering Q4, prices will slowly fall back to the $70,000 to $75,000 range as the end of the cycle is confirmed, the Fed's balance sheet reduction accelerates, and speculative funds seasonally withdraw.

Under the downside risk scenario, if Warsh launches unexpected tightening policies after taking office, or if signs of recession in the global economy trigger a sell-off in risk assets, BTC may test $65,000 to $68,000 at the end of the year - which is exactly the upper edge of the long-term shock platform formed after the halving in 2024, and is also the bear market support range given by Jurrien Timmer.

Of course, the market will always be reflexive. If spot demand unexpectedly turns positive in Q2, the Federal Reserve is forced to cut interest rates early due to economic weakness, or the United States releases major regulatory benefits through bills such as the CLARITY Act, BTC still has the possibility of hitting $110,000 to $120,000. But even so, a breakout of the previous high of $126,198 would require too many extreme conditions to be met simultaneously, which is not probabilistically convincing.

For traders, in the second half of 2026, they should no longer be obsessed with "breaking the previous high". A more pragmatic strategy is to gradually reduce risk exposure above $85,000 and defend core positions at the strong support area of ​​$70,000. Bitcoin's long-term value still holds, but in this cycle, time is not on the side of rushing to new highs.

GPT-5.4: In the second half of this year, BTC went up and down repeatedly, and then entered a longer period of high fluctuations

For Bitcoin in the second half of 2026, the question is not just "can it reach new highs?" More importantly: If it cannot reach its previous high in the second half of 2026, how will Bitcoin continue? My judgment is that a breakout of the previous high is not impossible, but it is more like an optimistic scenario than a baseline scenario. A more realistic path is to have multiple upward attacks, repeated declines, and then enter a longer period of high fluctuations.

If it cannot reach its previous high in the second half of 2026, Bitcoin will most likely go like this

The first step is to test repeatedly, but it is difficult to get over it in one go. The price may rise to US$90,000, US$100,000 or even higher areas multiple times, but every time it approaches the previous high zone, it will be suppressed by the combined efforts of unwinding orders, profit-taking orders, and institutional position adjustments.

The second step is to fluctuate at a high level, and the duration may be longer than most people expect. The real danger is not falling, but going sideways. A decline will scare away a group of people, while sideways trading will wear away the patience of more people. If new funds cannot keep up, the price will most likely pull back and forth between around US$80,000 and the previous high range, and it will take time to digest the upper chips.

The third step is to reselect the direction. If the interest rate environment becomes more friendly from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027, and ETF funds become stronger again, the previous shock zone will become the accumulation zone for the next breakthrough; if macro data continues to repeat and interest rate cut expectations continue to retreat, Bitcoin may become more and more like a more volatile growth asset in the U.S. stock market, which can rise and fall, but it will no longer easily break out of the straight-line peak driven by emotions.

In a sense, this more mature and grueling sideways movement may be the necessary stage for Bitcoin to move from an emotional asset to a mainstream allocation asset.

Claude: BTC will no longer have a vertical market, and it will have to wait until 2027 to break the previous high

The Fed still has eight months, five meetings, and possibly one rate cut. ETFs have seen continuous net inflows but it takes time to accumulate. Long-term holders hold on to 80% of the chips and won't let go. Miner costs draw an invisible floor around $77,000.

Add these things together, and the most likely story to be told in the second half of the year is a wide-ranging shock. Below is the miner cost band of $70,000 to $75,000, and above is the supply pressure zone of $95,000 to $110,000. The previous high of $126,210 is like a delayed horizontal line, leaving it for a certain signature, a certain interest rate cut, and a certain capital tide in 2027.

On October 6 last year, Bitcoin reached $120,000 for the first time. At that time, retail investors’ carnival, ETF acceleration, macro easing, and political honeymoon jointly pushed up the price. To replicate that scene in the second half of the year, these conditions need to come together again. But they are now scattered in different rooms, some have not returned yet, and some have already left.

The signature of the sovereign buyer may appear on a Bloomberg terminal some morning. But at that moment, the first ones to receive the news were the group of whales already guarding the bottom of the well.

DeepSeek: Complete the exchange of chips and accumulation of power in the second half of 2026, preparing for the next round of main rise

The core chips of the bullish camp are institutions and ETFs. In April, the net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF reached US$2.44 billion, the strongest month of the year; the momentum continued unabated in May, with a single-day net inflow of US$629.8 million on the 1st, and another US$467.35 million on the 5th. The cumulative net inflow of all spot ETFs has reached US$59.3 billion, with an asset management scale of US$106.4 billion, accounting for approximately 6.7% of the total market value of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, long-term holders have net accumulated approximately 331,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Institutional target prices are generally above US$150,000, and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also reiterated the target price of US$125,000, believing that the expansion of legal currency liquidity is the key driver.

The bearish faction holds the hammer of the cycle and macro headwinds. After the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin will peak as scheduled in 2025, which is completely in line with the rhythm of "peaking 9-18 months after the halving". 2026 is the year of adjustment to the historical law. Kaiko Research notes that a drop of about 50% from ATH is still a typical cycle correction. Veteran analyst Peter Brandt said more bluntly that there will be no new high in 2026, and the bottom may not be until the second quarter of 2027. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate cuts in January and maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The market has priced in a more than 50% probability of raising interest rates within the year. Prediction market Polymarket shows there is only a 15% chance of Bitcoin returning to $120,000 in 2026.

The real deep game is: Have ETFs and institutional money permanently rewritten the four-year cycle? The ETF currently holds about 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply and is structurally tightening the pool of tradable chips. If demand persists, the bottom of the cycle may be "raised" and the historic deep plunge will no longer occur. Scaramucci's interpretation is intriguing: "When you believe in cycles, you create a self-fulfilling prophecy."

If it cannot break through the previous high in the second half of the year, the more likely scenario is a wide range of fluctuations and a gradual rise in the center. Carol Alexander, a professor at the University of Sussex, predicts that BTC will operate with high volatility in the range of $75,000-150,000, with a center of gravity around $110,000. The theoretical bottom of the four-year cycle is at $40,000-50,000, while the power law model shows that the low track has risen to $60,000 in mid-2026 and $70,000 by the end of the year, and the February low has been confirmed here. This means that even if the adjustment continues, the mid- to long-term bottom support is likely to be above $60,000-70,000. On the policy front, the SEC and CFTC jointly issued token classification guidelines in April and planned to introduce "innovation exemptions." The regulatory clarity has also provided an additional buffer for the market.

To sum up, in the second half of 2026, Bitcoin is likely to complete the exchange of chips and accumulate strength in the wide range of US$60,000-120,000, preparing for the next round of main rise. Regardless of whether it can reach new highs, the trend of market institutionalization and compliance is a foregone conclusion.