During the observation window from April 20 to May 7, 2026, the global crypto market showed remarkable resilience, and the overall market value completed the paradigm transition from "high-frequency speculation-driven" to "structural position adjustment" amid macro fluctuations.

Encryption Market Summary

In the middle of this biweekly stock game, the overall market value has completed the paradigm transition from "high-frequency speculation-driven" to "structural position adjustment" amid macro fluctuations. Although the inflation concerns caused by the geopolitical game have led to a general decline in risk assets, the crypto market has successfully maintained its total market capitalization benchmark of US$2.7 trillion with the continued support of spot ETFs and the steady expansion of stablecoin stocks. This trendreflects that core digital assets have established the dual status of "alternative hedging" and "certainty premium" in institutional asset allocation.

Macro and focus

1. Bitcoin market changes

The market capitalization ratio jumped from 54.41% to 61.3%, reflecting the risk aversion logic of capital rapidly flowing back to consensus assets in the uncertainty cycle. It is worth noting that although the panic index rose slightly to 51, its deviation from the slight increase in the total market capitalization confirmed that during the shock consolidation, the market has entered a psychological game period of switching from "defensive positioning" to "structural position adjustment".

2. Changes in the Stablecoin Market

In the mid-term of the stock game, the marginal changes in on-chain liquidity and fluctuations in valuation exchange rates are the core criteria for judging whether the market has entered the "recovery stage" or the "consolidation corridor." The total amount of stablecoin issuance this week (3.25 billion) dropped 23.53% from last week (4.25 billion). According to penetration analysis, this decline was mainly caused by the slowdown in the pace of additional issuance of Tether Treasury (from 2 billion USDT last week to 1 billion USDT this week), which released a clear signal that the marginal purchasing power of the short-term market has peaked in stages and entered a period of momentum.

3. The dominance of macro uncertainty

Coinbase set the Q2 outlook as "neutral" in its latest strategic report. The main logic lies in the systematic suppression of the global supply chain by geopolitical conflicts. The evolution of the situation in the Middle East not only affects energy cost expectations, but also limits the space for crypto assets to make up for gains in the short term by tightening global risk appetite.

1 Market Overview

1.1 Mainstream marketSituation

The total market value of global cryptocurrency is US$2.76 trillion, compared with US$2.72 trillion last week. The total market value of cryptocurrency increased by approximately 1.1% this week.

As of now, the market value of Bitcoin is US$1.62 trillion, accounting for 58.91% of the total market value of cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, the market capitalization of stablecoins is $315.7 billion, accounting for 11.48% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization.

The cryptocurrency fear index is 51, indicating extreme panic.

1.2 ETF market situation

U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have a cumulative net inflow of approximately US$59.25 billion, with a net inflow of US$532 million this week; US Ethereum spot ETFs have a cumulative net inflow of approximately US$12.08 billion, with a net inflow of US$61.29 million this week.

2. Hot market news

Application paradigm and capital flow

a16z Crypto's move to establish a new US$2.2 billion fund marks capital's strategic layout for the "mid-cycle". The fund's clear focus on turning new infrastructure into everyday products reflects the way top VCs are combating short-term market uncertainty by focusing on infrastructure during times of macro volatility.

Frontier projects and technology narrative

The deep symbiosis of AI and encryption: The intensive trends of OpenGradient, Gensyn and USD.AI have confirmed that encryption technology is the inevitable path to solve the "black box governance" of AI. Verifiable AI reasoning mechanism will become the core standard of future decentralized computing networks.

Parameter competition for high-performance expansion: TON has completed the Catchain 2.0 upgrade, achieving 400ms block time and 1-second final confirmation, greatly improving social payment performance; while MegaETH is aiming for a 10ms level block production target. This cross-generational evolution of extreme performance is bringing blockchain into the era of “real-time computing”.

RWA's institutional scale: Tether has shown strong strategic expansion this fortnight. By leading investments in KAIO (RWA tokenization infrastructure) and Belo (Latin American crypto payment wallet), it is transforming from a stablecoin issuer to an integrator of "RealFi+ payment gateways". At the same time, JPYC completed Series B round of financing (cumulative financing reached US$28.93 million), further broadening the global application chain of Japanese yen stablecoins.

Project TGE and investment and financing dynamics

TGE News: MegaETH (April 30)'s TGE adopted a "KPI-linked release" mechanism, which reflects that the industry has begun to abandon simple linear unlocking and instead pursue an incentive model driven by real growth (such as USDM scale, transaction volume).

Financing highlights:

Fence ($20 million in financing): Led by Galaxy Digital, it focuses on digitizing asset-backed financing (ABF) backend infrastructure.

Squads ($18 million in financing): Aims to expand its Altitude stablecoin payment platform and provide 24/7 financial management for enterprises.

3. Macroeconomic and regulatory trends

1. Global regulatory and policy progress

U.S. legislative timetable locked: Senator Bernie Moreno publicly stated that the encryption market structure legislation will be reviewed next week and is expected to be signed by the president on July 4.

Institutionalized path guarantee: The joint promotion of the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act provides a clear definition for RWA (real world assets) and institutional-level participation. This “institutionalized path protection” reflects that regulators are inducing long-term capital to complete large-scale admissions by establishing legal boundaries.

2. Macro riskAssessmentEvaluation

Concerns about stalling growth: The IMF has lowered its forecast for global GDP growth this year to 3.1%; Oxford Economics has warned that if oil supply is severely disrupted, global growth may plummet to 1.4% in 2026. This recession shadow reflects the macro rationale for market contraction in risk asset valuations.

Bitcoin's "responsible" transformation: Senior analyst Tim Draper emphasized at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that holding Bitcoin has changed from a simple "opportunity to get rich" to an "institutional responsibility." He suggested that households should reserve BTC for six months of expenses, and businesses should reserve at least one month to protect against banking system risks. This logical transformation confirms that digital gold is completing a qualitative transformation from a "marginal asset" to a "core strategic reserve".