Source: Patrick Bush, Matthew Sigel;VanEckDigital Asset Research; Compiled by: Golden Finance

This articleKey points

• Bitcoin consolidates after sharp correction: Bitcoin’s 30-day average price fell by 19%, but spot prices have stabilized as realized volatility fell from 80 to 50, and futures funding rates fell from 4.1% to 2.7%.

• Options market signals suggest the market is extremely defensive: The put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, the highest level since June 2021; at the same time, put premium relative to spot volume reached an all-time high of 4 basis points.

• On-chain activity and miner selling remain sluggish:On-chain transfer volume fell by 31%, daily handling fees fell by 27%, distribution to long-term holders slowed, and miners sold approximately all newly produced Bitcoins.

Bitcoin ChainMarchMonthly Dashboard and HighlightsAs follows:

1. Price trend and volatility

The Bitcoin market has entered a period of consolidation over the past month as volatility declined and derivatives positioning remained subdued. Although spot prices have stabilized after earlier declines, Bitcoin’s 30-day average price is still 19% lower than the previous period, reflecting weaker prices earlier this month. Realized volatility fell sharply from around 80 to just over 50, indicating that speculative trading activity cooled significantly during this period. Realized volatility measures the actual observed price movements during a specific period, while implied volatility reflects the market's forward expectations.

The futures market shows similar dynamics. Funding rates averaged 2.7%, down from 4.1% in the previous month. At the same time, the average open interest in Bitcoin futures fell by 1% month-on-month, indicating that even if market conditions begin to stabilize, leverage levels are still suppressed.

The decline in volatility coexists with the reduction in leverage, which is consistent with the characteristics of the position reset phase after market pressure subsides - traders reduce risk exposure and funding rate premiums return to normal levels.

2. Option positions

Bitcoin options market shows investors remain defensive. The total open interest in options rose to US$33.4 billion (+3% month-on-month), indicating that even if futures leverage cools down, derivatives risk exposure remains high.

The put/call open interest ratio, which measures the ratio of put to call open interest, hit a high of 0.84 and averages 0.77, reaching its highest level since June 2021 (when China banned Bitcoin mining). The ratio currently sits in the 91st percentile of observations since mid-2019, highlighting the unusually strong demand for downside risk hedging relative to bullish positions.

The put/call open interest ratio averages 0.77, a new high since June 2021 and in the 91st percentile of observations since mid-2019.

3. Downside protection requirements

Traders continue to pay a significant premium for downside protection. Total premiums used to purchase puts fell 24% sequentially, but still reached $685 million over the past 30 days, which is higher than 77% of monthly observations since the beginning of 2025.

Relative to spot trading volume, put option premiums reached an all-time high of approximately 4 basis points, approximately 3x the levels seen in mid-2022 following the collapse of the Terra/Luna stablecoin and the Ethereum staking liquidity crisis. Meanwhile, premiums used to buy call options fell 12% to about $562 million, extending recent weakness and highlighting the market's shift toward defensive positioning. Despite falling volatility, investors continue to allocate significant amounts of capital to hedge against downside risks.

Put option premiums relative to Bitcoin spot trading volume reached 2 times the previous cycle’s all-time high.

4. Option skewness and volatility premium

Not only is demand for hedging rising, so are its costs. In the 30 days ending March 3, 2026, the put/call premium payout ratio hit 2.0, the highest level since the summer of 2022. Implied volatility for puts averages about 66, which is about 16 points higher than the realized volatility of about 50 and about 17 points higher than the implied volatility for calls. The spread is at the 89th percentile since August 2019, indicating that puts are significantly more expensive than calls as investors actively hedge against downside risk.

This degree of implied volatility skewness has historically been associated with positive Bitcoin returns in both the short and long term. Over the past six years, skewness readings in this decile have corresponded to Bitcoin’s average return of +13% in the subsequent 90 days and +133% in the subsequent 360 days; while Bitcoin’s historical average returns during the same period were -4.6% and +102%, respectively.

The table below divides all historical option skewness readings into 10 bins (deciles), ranging from D1 (puts are relatively cheapest) to D10 (puts are most expensive). The current reading falls in D9, the second highest range.对于每个十分位数，表格显示了随后90天和360天的比特币平均回报，以及该回报在所有十分位数中的排名。 D9 produced the strongest 90-day average return (+13.2%, #1) and the third-strongest 360-day average return (+133.2%), suggesting that extreme put demand at current levels has historically tended to precede significant price recoveries.

The current skewness is in the D9 decile.

In short: When options markets have experienced the same level of fear in the past, Bitcoin has tended to follow suit. Current defensive levels, while justified by recent price action, historically have typically been closer to periods of market bottoms than tops.

5. Network activities on the chain

On-chain activity, which measures directly settled transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain, has seen broad month-on-month declines in most major network metrics.

In the past 30 days:

• On-chain transfer volume decreased by 31%;

• Total daily handling fees decreased by 27%;

• Daily active addresses decreased by 5%;

• Average transaction fees fell by 40%.

The total number of transactions was the only bright spot, rising slightly during this period.

Low network activity suggests limited speculative participation directly on-chain, although this dynamic may also reflect the growing role of off-chain trading venues, derivatives markets, and ETPs. As the financialization of Bitcoin deepens, more and more trading activities are conducted without generating on-chain settlement transactions.

As a result, traditional network activity metrics may capture only a shrinking portion of overall market activity compared to earlier cycles.

6. Distribution of long-term holders

Selling by long-term holders appears to be slowing down, which could be a constructive sign. Each holding period group has experienced a month-on-month decrease in transfer volume, indicating that older coins (usually representing long-term investors and early holders) are being used less frequently. Reduced activity in these group transfers typically means less distribution pressure from experienced market participants.

The decrease in spending by long-term holders is accompanied by a decrease in the share of active long-term Bitcoin supply from 31% to 30%, indicating that the share of circulating Bitcoin that has recently transacted has shrunk slightly.

The transfer volume of each currency holding period group has decreased

7. The economic status of miners

Financial pressure on Bitcoin miners has intensified over the past month. Total miner revenue fell by11%, and Bitcoin mining stocks fell by about7%, reflecting the industry's overall weakening profitability.

Despite worsening economic conditions, miners have not significantly increased selling pressure. Bitcoin-denominated outflows from miners to exchanges edged up just1%, suggesting that most operators are trying to preserve their remaining reserves rather than actively liquidating positions.

Industry dynamics highlight an increasingly clear strategic shift within the mining industry. Bitdeer has sold all of its Bitcoin reserves, while companies such as Core Scientific and MARA have also signaled plans to liquidate their positions as they transition into the AI ​​infrastructure business. These trends indicate that against the background of the tightening economic model of pure Bitcoin mining, the capital pressure faced by miners is increasing.

The total balance of miners (excluding wallets belonging to Bitcoin's anonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto) is currently approximately 684 million BTC, a year-on-year decrease of only approximately 0.5%. Approximately 164,000 new BTC were mined during the same period, which means that miners have essentially sold the entire supply of new output.

Since late 2023, total miner balances have gradually decreased, indicating that the industry continues to sell Bitcoin to fund operating and capital expenditures. If Bitcoin prices remain depressed, miners may be forced to accelerate the sale of Bitcoins to pay continued dollar-denominated costs, which may increase market supply pressure.

Total Bitcoin holdings by miners have continued to decline since the fall of 2023

8. Trader’s Profit and Loss

Rolling 30-day realized P&L provides another perspective on investor sentiment by tracking the net value of coins sold above or below their purchase price. High realized losses often coincide with capitulation selling late in a market correction, while declining realized losses may signal seller exhaustion, a prerequisite for price stabilization. Monitoring this indicator in conjunction with the derivatives signals discussed above may help identify turning points where selling pressure subsides and a market bottom begins to form.

Profit and loss has been achieved in rolling 30 days

9. Market structure conclusion

Taken together, current market dynamics indicate:

• Speculative leverage in the futures market is cooling down;

• High demand for downside hedging in the options market;

• On-chain activity remains subdued as trading activity shifts to ETPs and derivatives;

• Distribution behavior by long-term holders is declining;

• 矿工的供应压力适度但处于可控范围。

While Bitcoin prices have stabilized in recent weeks, investors remain cautious in positioning in derivatives markets and on-chain activity, suggesting the market may still be consolidating after earlier volatility.

10. Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Bitcoin put/call ratio reveal about market sentiment?

The put/call open interest ratio measures the relative demand for downside protection (put options) versus bullish bets (call options). The current ratio, at 0.77, is in the 91st percentile of all observations since mid-2019, indicating investors are unusually defensive. Historically, when the ratio reaches such high levels, it tends to herald a subsequent significant price recovery, with Bitcoin in this decile posting an average return of +13% over the subsequent 90 days.

Why is Bitcoin price stabilizing but on-chain activity declining?

The decline in on-chain transaction volume and fees is due to an increasing number of Bitcoin transactions being conducted through off-chain venues, including derivatives markets, centralized exchanges, and exchange-traded products (ETPs). As the financialization of Bitcoin deepens, traditional network indicators capture only a shrinking portion of overall market activity, making them less reliable as stand-alone sentiment indicators than they were in earlier market cycles.

Are Bitcoin miners selling their Bitcoin holdings?

Bitcoin miners have been gradually reducing their holdings since late 2023, and their total balance (excluding Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings) currently stands at approximately 684,000 BTC. Although miners have sold essentially all of their newly minted Bitcoins (approximately164thousand) over the past year, outflows to exchanges have only edged up1% month-on-month, suggesting that most operators are managing their reserves conservatively rather than selling aggressively.