The world will not be gentle to you just because you want stability. Either be killed by chaos, or learn to eat from chaos - there is no third way.

Stability is an illusion, it is not the nature of the world.

The arrival of the AI era has greatly amplified uncertainty. Instability is the norm, and black swan events are becoming more and more common.

The traditional "stable path", such as "good schools → good companies → lay flat", will become increasingly fragile.

Establish an anti-fragile system, including mentality + assets + cognition + skills + connections, so that you can become stronger and stronger in chaos, instead of being crushed by black swans.

This goes back to the "antifragility" advocated by Taleb.

Everything comes from understanding the nature of the world:

The nature of the world is non-linear, as Taleb has always emphasized:

• Most people understand the world in terms of the Gaussian bell curve (normal distribution), but the reality is a world dominated by power law distribution/extreme values.

• Daily small fluctuations are not important. What really determines destiny is a very small number of "black swan" events (financial crisis, epidemic, technological subversion, war).

• You can't predict which black swan will come, but you can change your "attitude" towards the black swan.

How to survive and become competitive in this chaotic world? Taleb’s thoughts are helpful:

1. A practical path towards antifragility

Barbell Strategy

Extremely polarize resources: 80–90% extremely conservative (life-saving cash, treasury bonds, very low risk), 10–20% extremely aggressive (high uncertainty, high leverage opportunities, such as entrepreneurship, angel investment, buying forward deep out-of-the-money options).

The middle 80% of "medium risk" assets are the most dangerous because they pretend to be safe, but in fact they break when hit.

Embrace small, frequent "failures" (via negativa + trial and error)

Anti-fragile systems rely on a large number of small mistakes for a very small number of big successes.

Don't pursue "high first-time success rate", but pursue a system where the cost of failure is extremely low and you can make a comeback while still alive.

Reduce downside, keep unlimited upside

Begin any decision by asking: What is the worst-case scenario? Can you bear it?

If the downside is finite (or even zero) and the upside is infinite or large, then go for it. For example, options, entrepreneurship, and knowledge work, rather than relatively stable "white-collar jobs."

This is especially true in the age of AI.

2. Personal cultivation

• Body: intermittent stress (exercise, fasting, cold baths, sun exposure, etc.).

• Finance: Minimalist Living + Barbell Investing.

• Occupation: Side hustle / multiple sources of income > A stable job in a large factory.

• Learning: Don’t pursue “useful knowledge”, read more classics that can stand the test of time + try and make mistakes yourself.

• Interpersonal: hang out less with "medium risk" people and more contact with people who are extremely successful or extremely unsuccessful (they are more real).

• Mindset: Treat chaos as fuel, not the enemy.

"Don't pray for calm seas, pray that you become a good sailor."