Author: Global Macro Fin, Source: Weibo, Degg_GlobalMacroFin

1. During the Asian session, global assets entered a risk-off state. Precious metals continued to decline. Gold once challenged the 4,600 mark. Oil prices plummeted. Asian stock markets generally fell. The Korean stock market once fell by more than 5%. US stock futures also fell.

2. We don’t think this is trading Kevin Warsh, or at least it’s not trading Warsh’s “Eagle”. The reason is that the 10y U.S. bond interest rate did not rise but fell 2bps to 4.23%. In fact, if investors want to pay attention to the market's pricing of Warsh's monetary policy, they can just keep an eye on the U.S. bond market, which has the most profound and professional discussion and understanding of potential changes in monetary policy.

3. If it weren’t for Warsh Trade, why did assets fall? We understand that it still comes from cross-asset contagion caused by deteriorating risk sentiment and rising volatility. Comparing the declines of different assets horizontally, it can be seen that the assets that have risen more recently have overall greater declines. For example, silver > gold > oil > copper, and another example is Hang Seng > US stocks > Shanghai Stock Exchange > GEM. This suggests that bulls across asset classes are generally taking profits in January after seeing precious metals plummet and market volatility rise, triggering cross-asset declines.

4. There is no need to be too nervous about today's market adjustment. It can be considered that the essence of this round of adjustment is to adjust the leverage and normalization of emotions in various markets, rather than "Warsh trading". It is a correction of excessive optimism in the early stage and an education for speculative positions, but it is conducive to a healthier rise in assets driven by fundamentals. In fact, today's pullback in oil prices is good news for every other asset class. It means that the possibility of Warsh Fed turning into an eagle is one point smaller.

5. Just one month has passed in 2026, and the market has jumped up and down several times, which reflects the possible characteristics of this year: high returns, high uncertainty, and high volatility. In such a market, it may not be difficult to see the right direction, but it is difficult to survive. Respect leverage, respect the market, and respect uncertainty.