On January 30, 2026 (Friday), the global financial market experienced a rare violent shock,made countless players scare.

What is very crazy is that international spot gold has plummeted from the historical high of nearly 5,600 US dollars per ounce the day before, once falling to around 5,100 US dollars, with a single-day drop of as much as 6%-8% , erasing the gains accumulated in several months; spot silver performed even more violently, and once plunged more than 12% . Bitcoin fell rapidly from above US$89,000, hitting the lowest range of US$82,000-84,000, with a drop of approximately 5%-7%. The entire crypto market was subsequently put under pressure.

The A-share market was not spared either. The precious metals sector led the decline in the two markets in early trading. The overall sector fell by more than 8%. Many stocks approached or directly fell to their limit at the opening: Sichuan Gold, CICC Gold, Hunan Silver, Silver Non-ferrous Metals and other collective stocks closed down, Shandong Gold,Chifeng Gold, Shengda Resources, etc. fell 8%-10%. According to the latest market data, the trading volume of many stocks in the sector has increased, showing obvious profit taking and the release of panic.

According to real-time reports from multiple media, Trump confirmed on Thursday night that Trump will announce the candidate on Friday morning. The candidate list speculated by the market includes former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (hawkish tendency), BlackRock Fixed Income Director Rick Rieder (dovish, market experienced), National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

Among them, Warsh’s nomination probability was once pushed to a high level by the prediction market. This directly ignited market concerns about the "uncertainty of the interest rate cut path," leading to a short-term rebound in the U.S. dollar, an upward revision of real interest rate expectations, and collective pressure on non-interest-bearing assets and high-risk assets.

As a veteran who has been in the industry for more than ten years, I have seen too many similar "black swan" moments: from the Christmas plunge caused by Trump's public criticism of Powell in 2018, to the long adjustment of gold falling from US$2,070 to US$1,620 during the 2022 interest rate hike cycle, to the multiple bear market baptisms of more than 80% in the crypto market. Today's earthquake is not the end of the world, but the market is reminding us in the most direct way: High and crowded expectations will always usher in corrections; uncertainty will always be the norm in the financial world More importantly, it provides us with valuable review opportunities, helping us improve our knowledge and become more calm.

1. Dismantling of the entire chain of events: Data and logic correspond one to one. Why did everything collapse at the same time?

Let us use data and facts to restore the entire process step by step and understand the logical connection behind it.

1. The early gains were too large, accumulating a lot of vulnerabilityIn 2026, precious metals and crypto assets experienced crazy rises. The international gold price has soared from around US$4,300-4,500 at the beginning of the year to around US$5,600, with a cumulative increase of more than 20%; silver has been even stronger, hitting record highs many times in the short term. The A-share precious metals sector has experienced astonishing gains in the past year, with some stocks rising by more than 200% cumulatively, and gains in the past month generally exceeding 80%. Bitcoin also rebounded from the lows at the end of 2025, and once approached more than $90,000 in early 2026. Historical data tells us: when an asset's short-term increase exceeds 50%-100%, profit taking and crowded trading will accumulate huge risks. Once an event is triggered, stampede selling is almost inevitable. This is highly similar to the path of gold's 20% correction at the beginning of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in 2022.

2. The suspense over Trump's nomination has become a direct triggerCurrent Chairman Powell's term will end in May 2026. Trump has repeatedly publicly expressed dissatisfaction with "insufficient interest rate cuts." The market had previously over-bet that "Trump's coming to power will inevitably bring about a substantially loose and low interest rate environment," which has driven the crazy rise in non-interest-bearing assets. But Trump's words on Thursday night, "The candidate will be announced tomorrow morning," instantly changed the rules of the game. The list of candidates includes both doves such as Rieder and hawks such as Warsh. The market is worried about the strengthening of the Fed's independence and the slowdown in interest rate cuts. Result: The U.S. dollar index rebounded in the short term, and the actual yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was expected to be revised upward. As a typical non-interest-bearing asset, gold was the first to be hit - the flash crash started late Thursday night and accelerated in early trading on Friday. Silver's decline amplified due to its stronger industrial properties.

3. Risk Contagion Rapidly: From Precious Metals to Crypto to Global Stock MarketsBitcoin is often regarded as "digital gold", but its high beta characteristics make it more likely to amplify fluctuations when liquidity tightens. Since Thursday night, Bitcoin has fallen rapidly from a high of $89,000 to a low of around $82,000 on Friday morning, a single-day drop of more than 5%. This is related to the simultaneous pressure on Nasdaq technology stocks - heavyweight stocks such as Microsoft dragged down U.S. stocks, and global risk appetite fell, triggering multi-asset deleveraging. The collective plunge of the A-share precious metal sector is a direct reflection of international price transmission: international gold and silver plunged late at night, domestic futures and stocks followed suit in early trading, and the price limit fell at the opening.

4. Deep background: Macroeconomic expectations are quietly being revisedThe January Federal Reserve meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and Powell's speech did not specify a timetable for a significant interest rate cut; the addition of Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation expectations, and concerns about "higher interest rates for longer" have resurfaced. Data shows that although the pace of gold purchases by the central bank has been stable recently, investors are still taking profits. This adjustment is the product of a reversal of typical liquidity expectations, and is exactly the same as the multiple shocks during the 2018-2019 Federal Reserve chairman change period.

2. The core insight of old financial people: volatility is the breath of the market, and maturity lies in learning from it

The market is never a straight road, but a mountain road full of undulations. Every major earthquake is a test of our knowledge.

1. The so-called "safe haven assets" also have obvious cyclical natureGold shines brightly in an environment of high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and low interest rates, but when real interest rates rise and profits are realized, it will also pull back sharply. Historical data shows that gold will fall by more than 20% during the 2022 interest rate hike cycle, and it will fall by nearly 30% during the "tapering panic" in 2013. Bitcoin is more volatile, with 70%-80% corrections common during bear market phases. The revelation is: No single asset is an eternal safe haven. They all have their own sensitive macro trigger points.

2. Policy uncertainty is the biggest variable, but it is also a signal for growthTrump has always had a changeable style. The market has previously over-interpreted his "dove" tendency, and today is the moment for correction. Similar to Trump's tweet criticizing Powell in 2018, U.S. stocks plummeted by more than 10% in a single day. Expert thinking: Uncertainty is inevitable. Instead of trying to predict accurately, it is better to learn to respect it and keep an open mind.

3. Emotions magnify everything, and greed at high levels often pays the priceWhen the early gains are too fast, market sentiment can easily turn from rationality to fanaticism. Today's sharp correction is a natural counterbalance to this sentiment. Data shows that funds chasing high prices often bear the greatest pressure during corrections.

3. A rational approach to facing fluctuations: emotional management and general risk aversion thinking

Faced with such a severe earthquake, the most important thing is to manage your emotions and stay calm and think. The following is a general experience summarized by some veteran financial people. It is for reference only to help everyone find an inner anchor in uncertainty.

• Take a deep breath first and control impulses: When the market plummets, the most common mistake is to panic or blindly buy the bottom. Stop first and review your focus: Is it short-term fluctuations or long-term logic? History has proven countless times that emotional decisions are often regretted later.

• Focus on the macro picture, not a single event: Track core indicators such as real interest rates (U.S. bond yields minus inflation expectations), U.S. dollar trends, and geopolitical dynamics. These are the real anchors for precious metals and risk assets. Today's adjustment is essentially a revision of expectations rather than a collapse of fundamentals.

• Think Diversified Balance: Different assets perform differently in different environments. Bonds are relatively stable when interest rates rise, precious metals have hedging value during inflationary periods, technology growth stocks are more flexible during easing cycles, and crypto assets represent the trend of digitalization. Understanding their complementarity helps build a more comprehensive perspective in your mind.

• Remain flexible and accept fluctuations: There will always be uncertainty in the market, and true calmness comes from accepting a 20%-50% correction as a normal phenomenon, rather than treating it as a disaster. In the long run, staying rational can often get through cycles.

• Learn more history, less chasing hot spots: Reviewing similar events in the past (such as the 2018 Federal Reserve crisis and the bear market of interest rate hikes in 2022), you will find that new opportunities are born after every adjustment. The accumulation of knowledge is the best emotional buffer.

4. Written at the end: Every earthquake is an advancement to more maturity

After Trump's nomination is confirmed today, whether the result is dovish or hawkish, short-term fluctuations may continue. But please remember: The market will always favor those who can stay calm and continue to learn.

Today's shock is not the end, but a wake-up call and a valuable lesson. It reminds us that the financial world is full of uncertainty, but because of this, there are endless possibilities.

Take a deep breath, look at it rationally, and have a long-term perspective. We will all become wiser and more calm through fluctuations. We will welcome the next, more stable stage together.