World Economic Forum in Davos, Elon Musk talks with BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink. Artificial intelligence, robots, energy, and space fields are similar to what he talked about before.

There is new news: Supervised fully autonomous driving is expected to be approved in China and Europe next month.

Fink: Good afternoon everyone! It's great to see you all here. This year’s Davos week was a blast. I hope everyone here can feel that we have had many deep conversations here. Of course, there will inevitably be disagreements in these conversations, but there is more consensus. And just earlier today, a peace agreement was successfully reached, which exactly confirms the mission of the World Economic Forum: to build a platform for dialogue, promote mutual understanding, and promote problem resolution. This is where our core values ​​lie. Today, I am very honored to invite Mr. Elon Musk. He came all the way from California to meet with you. Elon, thank you!

Elon: You're welcome. In fact, I heard about the holding of this peace summit, and I was wondering at the time, was this going to be a "jigsaw puzzle"? Cut off a piece from Greenland and a piece from Venezuela to cobble together a peace plan? But fortunately, we really made peace.

Fink: All we want is peace.

Okay, let me introduce myself again. I've been CEO of BlackRock since it went public, and I'm very proud of that. The company has generated a compound annual return of 21% for shareholders. After Elon took over Tesla and promoted its listing, Tesla's compound annual return rate was as high as 43%.

I would like to use this data to tell everyone present, especially our European friends: This is why citizens of all countries should invest in growth assets and high-quality companies in their own countries. Just imagine, if a large number of pension funds had chosen to invest in Tesla when it went public, what huge returns these funds would have received today. Tesla's performance is amazing. Looking around the world, no company comparable in size to Tesla can achieve such a high compound rate of return.

Congratulations, Elon! This data speaks for itself.

Elon: It all comes down to Tesla having an unparalleled team.

Fink: Next, let’s talk about a more in-depth topic: the development prospects of technology. I want to discuss with you the fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, and space. The core of all this ultimately comes down to engineering rigor, large-scale production, and efficient execution. Globally, there are few people like Elon who have the vision and perseverance to face the challenges in these fields. They can not only propose innovative ideas, but also implement them on multiple technology tracks. That’s why I think we need to have this conversation in Davos. Currently, you are deeply engaged in the four major fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, space, and energy. From an engineering perspective, what do these fields have in common?

Elon: Well, these areas all face extremely high technical challenges. But the ultimate goal of all my companies is the same, which is to maximize the future possibilities of human civilization, give human civilization a bright future, and at the same time promote the expansion of human consciousness into the universe beyond the earth.

Take SpaceX as an example. Our core mission is to continuously make breakthroughs in rocket technology and ultimately realize the continuation of human life and consciousness on the moon, Mars and even further galaxies. And I think we should always think of life and consciousness as we know it, as fragile and precious beings. Because as far as we currently know, there is no sign of other life in the universe.

People often ask me: "Are there aliens on earth?" I joke and say "I am", or "I come from the future", but no one believes me.

Maybe I really come from the future, but unfortunately they don’t believe it.

Fink: Haha, okay.

Elon: But seriously, if there are aliens lurking among humans, I will most likely be the first to discover them. After all, SpaceX has launched more than 9,000 satellites, but we have never encountered an alien spacecraft in orbit that needed to be avoided. So my conclusion is: we must assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare existences in the universe, maybe even unique. If this is indeed the case, then we must do everything we can to ensure that this “light of consciousness” does not go out. I have always compared human consciousness to a weak candle in the vast darkness, which may be blown out by the wind at any time. This is the significance of SpaceX’s commitment to achieving the goal of “multi-planetary species”: even if the earth encounters natural and man-made disasters in the future, human civilization can continue.

Tesla's mission initially focused on sustainable energy technology, and now we have further proposed the vision of "Sustainable Abundance". Artificial intelligence and robotics are the only way to achieve prosperity for all mankind. People often discuss how to eliminate global poverty and how to provide everyone with a high quality of life. In my opinion, artificial intelligence and robots are the only solutions. Of course, these two technical routes are also accompanied by risks, and we must remain highly vigilant. We don't want reality to turn into a scene like the plot of James Cameron's movie "Terminator". It's scary to think about it.

His movies are indeed wonderful, but we obviously don't want to experience the plot of "Terminator" ourselves. However, if we can realize the popularization and low-cost of artificial intelligence, coupled with ubiquitous robots, then the global economy will usher in an unprecedented explosive growth.

Fink: Elon, do you think this growth will be inclusive? Or will it only benefit a minority? How can we promote this growth to be inclusive?

Elon: Of course it will be inclusive. To put it simply, the popularity of humanoid robots will completely change the economic landscape. Economic output is equal tothe average productivity of a single robot multiplied by the number of robots.

I can boldly predict that in the future benign development scenario, the popularity of artificial intelligence and robots will reach saturation, enough to meet all human needs. By then, people won’t even be able to think of anything else to bother a robot with. Because goods and services will become extremely abundant, the number of robots will eventually exceed that of humans.

Fink: But in such an era, how should human values and goals be reflected?

Elon: Nothing is perfect. But we must recognize a reality: Extreme material affluence and compulsory labor requirements cannot be achieved at the same time. If some work must be done by someone, and only a few people can do it, then prosperity will not be possible, and this kind of growth can only be the growth of a few people.

Fink: Yes, it is growth that is limited to a small area.

Elon: Yes, that’s what it means. But if there are billions of humanoid robots in the future, and I firmly believe that day will come, then everyone on the planet will have their own robot, and everyone will want one. After all, who doesn’t want a robot that can take care of their children and pets? Many of my friends are facing the problem of supporting their elderly parents.

Fink: Indeed, and it’s expensive.

Elon: Yes, not only is the cost high, but more importantly, the labor structure of today’s society simply cannot meet the needs of elderly care. The number of young people is not enough to take care of all the elderly.

Fink: That’s right.

Elon: Just imagine, what a wonderful thing it would be if there was a robot that could take good care of and protect our parents and elders. I believe that such robots will soon enter thousands of households. So overall, I'm very confident about the future. Humanity is moving towards an era of extreme material abundance, which is a very exciting thing. And there is no doubt that we are living in the most eventful era in human history.

Fink: In this new era, do you think it is possible for us to reverse aging? In other words, can we witness the birth of anti-aging technology with our own eyes?

Elon: To be honest, I don’t put much effort into the anti-aging field. But I think this is definitely a problem that can be overcome. And I believe that when we truly understand the root causes of aging, we will find that the answer is incredibly simple and not some esoteric mystery.

The reason why I dare to say this is because almost all cells in the human body age simultaneously. I have never in my life seen someone whose left arm was old and whose right arm was still young.

There must be a "Synchronous Clock" behind this, which precisely regulates the aging rhythm of the 35 trillion cells in the human body.

But having said that, the existence of death is not meaningless. There are evolutionary reasons why human lifespan is limited. If human beings could truly live forever, then the entire society might fall into rigidity, and everything would stagnate and lose its due vitality. But even so, I still firmly believe that humans will eventually find ways to extend lifespan and even reverse aging. This possibility is very high.

Fink: I can’t wait.

Next let’s talk about the future. The development of artificial intelligence models, autonomous machines, and rocket technology that you just mentioned all rely on exponential improvements in computing power, substantial expansion of energy supply, and large-scale production and manufacturing. So, what are the bottlenecks in achieving these goals? In addition, in the face of such huge investment, how can we ensure the inclusiveness of technological dividends and prevent them from becoming the exclusive benefits of a few people?

Elon: I believe that the universalization of technological dividends is an inevitable trend. Because artificial intelligence companies will instinctively pursue as many customers as possible, and the cost of artificial intelligence is becoming lower and lower, and it is falling sharply every year, it can even be said that its cost is changing significantly almost every month.

Fink: Yes, open source models are everywhere now.

Elon: Yes, open source models are developing very fast. There is only about a year of technology gap between them and closed source business models. Therefore, in order to compete for customers, artificial intelligence companies will inevitably push technology to every corner of the world.

Fink: But the problem is that the process of achieving this goal requires huge investment: computing power, chips, chip manufacturing plants, power supply, etc. In your opinion, what is the biggest bottleneck in these links? After all, these are expensive areas.

Elon: You’re on to something. I believe that the biggest bottleneck for the large-scale application of artificial intelligence is in the final analysis, power supply.

Fink: Yes, energy.

Elon: Yes. We see that the production capacity of AI chips is growing exponentially, but the growth rate of global power supply is only 3% to 4% per year at most. It is obvious that before long, perhaps even by the end of this year, the number of chips we produce will exceed the upper limit of what the existing power system can handle.

Of course, China is an exception. China's electricity growth rate is very alarming. As we speak, China is building nuclear power plants with a total installed capacity of 100 gigawatts.

But in fact, solar energy is the main force in China's energy development. As far as I know, China's annual solar panel production capacity is as high as 1,500 GW, and its actual annual installed capacity exceeds 1,000 GW. Of course, solar energy has intermittent problems. To achieve stable power supply, it needs to be equipped with energy storage batteries. Roughly speaking, 1,000 GW of installed photovoltaic capacity can be converted into a stable power output of about 250 GW. This is a considerable amount, equivalent to half of the average annual electricity consumption in the United States.

Fink: That’s right.

Elon: Average annual electricity consumption in the United States is approximately 500 gigawatts. In other words, China's solar energy alone, coupled with energy storage systems, can provide half of the electricity demand of the United States. Solar energy is undoubtedly the most promising form of energy currently. And whether on the earth or looking at the entire solar system, the sun is the absolute energy core, contributing almost 100% of the energy in the solar system. This is crucial. The Sun accounts for 99.8% of the total mass of the entire solar system, Jupiter accounts for about 0.1%, and all other celestial bodies combined account for the remaining 0.1%.

Even if you throw Jupiter into a thermonuclear reactor and burn it up, the energy contributed by the sun will still account for 100%. After all, Jupiter only accounts for 0.1% of its mass. Even if you conjure three more Jupiters out of thin air and throw them into the solar system, burning up these four Jupiters and all other celestial bodies, the sun's energy dominance will not be shaken at all.

So, the future of energy is ultimately the future of solar energy. That’s why SpaceX plans to launch solar-powered artificial intelligence satellites in the next few years. Space contains inexhaustible energy, and it does not require any land resources on the earth. The space in space is unlimited, and we can build extremely large-scale energy facilities there. I think the ultimate scale could be even hundreds of terawatts.

Fink: We’ve talked about this before. Why don't you share with the audience here, if we want to rely on solar energy to meet all the electricity needs of the United States, how much area of ​​solar power stations will we need? Which areas should be preferred for site selection? In addition, I also want to ask, since it is technically feasible, why have we not promoted it on a large scale?

Elon: Simply put, a 100 mile × 100 mile (approximately 160 km × 160 km) solar power station is enough to meet the electricity needs of the entire United States. Such an area is actually not very large. You can just find a remote corner in Utah, Nevada or New Mexico and put down such a power station. Of course, for safety reasons, we will not concentrate all photovoltaic facilities in one place. But the key is that it only takes up a small part of the United States to solve the country's power problems.

The same goes for Europe. You only need to build a solar power station in relatively sparsely populated areas such as Spain and Sicily to meet the electricity needs of the entire Europe.

Fink: Then why do you think Europe and the United States have not promoted solar power generation on a large scale like China?

Elon: In fact, Europe and the United States are also making progress, but the progress is relatively slow. The crux of the matter is that the U.S. tariffs on solar panels are outrageously high. This directly results in the construction costs of solar power stations being artificially inflated. After all, the vast majority of solar panels in the world are made in China.

Fink: If we want to achieve such large-scale construction, what conditions need to be met in Europe and the United States to make it commercially feasible?

Elon: I can share with you the plans of SpaceX and Tesla. Our two companies are working independently to achieve 100 gigawatts of annual solar panel production capacity in the United States in the future. It will take about three years to achieve this goal.

Fink: That’s a huge number.

Elon: That’s right. I also hope that other companies can join in and promote the development of the solar energy industry. Of course, we cannot influence U.S. tariff policy. But for other countries, the solar panels produced in China are extremely cost-effective, and it is definitely a wise choice to vigorously develop solar power generation.

Fink: I know you have some big news coming up about robotics. When I visited the Tesla factory before, you showed me those robots.

Elon: Yes.

Fink: You mentioned before that there will be billions of robots in the future. So specifically in manufacturing scenarios, how long will it take for these robots to be deployed on a large scale? How long does it take for it to be truly put into practical use and value, and then achieve what you call "material prosperity"?

Elon: Humanoid robot technology will advance very quickly. Currently, there are already some Tesla Optimus robots performing simple tasks in factories. I predict that by the end of this year, these robots will be able to handle more complex tasks, but they will still be mainly used in industrial scenarios in the initial stage. By the end of next year, we should be able to sell humanoid robots to the public. By then, these robots will have extremely high reliability and safety, and will have very comprehensive functions, basically meeting people's various needs.

Fink: In fact, we have seen a similar speed of technological iteration in Tesla's automotive products. Tesla's on-board software is now updated almost every quarter, and each update will improve the intelligence level of the vehicle, just like constantly upgrading the "mobile robot" of the car.

Elon: That’s right. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is updated as frequently as once a week. Recently, some insurance companies stated that the safety of Tesla's fully autonomous driving function is high enough for them to provide half-price insurance discounts to car owners who turn on this function.

Fink: Will the insurance company monitor the driving data of the vehicle? Is this a prerequisite for insurance benefits?

Elon: Yes.

However, I think that autonomous driving technology is already a solved problem from a technical perspective. Tesla has launched Robotaxi service in a few cities, and it is expected that this service will achieve widespread coverage in the United States by the end of this year. In addition, we are also expected to receive approval for supervised full autonomous driving capabilities in the European market next month.

Fink: Can it really be that fast?

Elon: Yes. The approval progress in the Chinese market is expected to be similar to that in Europe.

Fink: Let’s talk about the space field next. Historically, space exploration has been a capital-intensive industry that has long been dominated by governments. Clearly, SpaceX has revolutionized this model. But the space industry was once slow to scale, and now I see you are accelerating it. Can you tell us how automation and artificial intelligence technologies are changing the economics of space exploration, construction, and operations?

Elon: Of course. A key technological breakthrough that SpaceX hopes to achieve this year is the complete reusability of the rocket. So far, no company has achieved complete reusability of rockets, which is precisely the core key to reducing the cost of space launches. Our Falcon 9 rocket has achieved partial recovery and reuse of the booster, and so far the booster has been recovered more than 500 times. But unfortunately, after completing its mission, the upper stage of Falcon 9 will burn up when re-entering the atmosphere and cannot be recovered. The cost of this part is equivalent to the cost of a small and medium-sized passenger aircraft.

Starship is completely different. As the largest delivery vehicle in human history, the starship is designed to be fully reusable.

Fink: Starship is the rocket you plan to use to land on Mars, right?

Elon: Yes, it can be used not only for Mars landings, but also for lunar missions and large-scale satellite launches. I hope to complete the technical verification of fully reusable starships this year. This will be a landmark innovation. Because once fully reusable, space launch costs willbe reduced by a factor of 100.

Fink: That’s right.

Elon: The economic logic is the same as the cost difference between reusable aircraft and disposable aircraft. If an airplane has to be scrapped after every flight, the ticket price will be ridiculously high; but if the airplane can be reused, the only cost of each flight is fuel. We believe this technological breakthrough will eventually make the cost of space launches lower than the cost of air freight, easily falling below $100 per pound of cargo. This will make it extremely cheap to launch large satellites into space.

And the efficiency of using solar energy to generate electricity in space will be five times or more higher than that on the ground. Because in space, solar panels can receive sunlight all day long and are not affected by the alternation of day and night and seasonal changes.

Fink: And space is very cold.

Elon: Yes, there is no atmospheric interference, no rain or snow. And because there is no attenuation of sunlight by the atmosphere, the efficiency of solar power generation in space can be increased by about 30%. Taken together, the same solar panel can generate 5 times more electricity in space than on the ground.

Fink: Is it possible to transmit electricity generated in space back to earth? Or should this power be used only for space-related needs, such as building artificial intelligence data centers in space?

Elon: Building a solar-powered artificial intelligence data center in space is definitely an excellent choice. As you said, the low temperature environment of space is a natural advantage. If the device is placed in a shaded area facing away from the sun, the temperature can be as low as 3 Kelvin (about minus 270 degrees Celsius). We can create an extremely efficient cooling system simply by pointing the solar panels toward the sun to generate electricity and radiating heat toward shaded areas. So overall, the lowest-cost solution for building an artificial intelligence data center in the future is to build it in space. I think this will become a reality within three years at the latest.

Fink: That’s amazing.

Looking 10 to 20 years into the future, how do you define success in artificial intelligence and space technology? In addition, are you more confident about the development of technology in the next three years than in five or ten years?

Elon: I can’t predict what will happen in 10 years. But the development speed of artificial intelligence is too fast. I believe that by the end of this year, the intelligence level of artificial intelligence will surpass that of any single human individual, and no later than next year. And by 2030 or 2031, that is, about five years from now, the intelligence level of artificial intelligence will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans.

Fink: It’s so shocking.

Our time is almost up, and I want to end by asking you a question from a more human perspective. We have been talking about peace before, so we won’t speculate here.

First of all, I want to say that you are the most successful entrepreneur and industrialist in the 21st century, and you can even be said to be one of the top innovators in human history. I want to know, what kind of power inspires you? Who is your role model? Where does your curiosity come from? More importantly, have you ever had a moment of enlightenment, a “lightbulb” moment in your life and career that changed everything?

Elon: Well... I read a lot of science fiction novels and comic books when I was a child, and I have always had a strong interest in technology. I never thought I would be where I am today, it all seems so incredible. But indeed, those science fiction works that depict the future have given me a steady stream of inspiration. I have always been eager to turn the imagination of science fiction novels into real-world scientific facts. I hope to build a star fleet like that in "Star Trek", allowing huge spaceships to shuttle between the stars, fly to other planets, and explore more distant galaxies.

Fink: Just like in Star Trek, teleport directly back to New York instead of taking a plane. I also wish I could teleport back directly.

Elon: Yeah.

I guess my core philosophy can be summed up as "Curiosity Driven". I am eager to understand the meaning of life, such as whether the standard model of physics is correct, what is the origin of life, and what is the ultimate fate of the universe. There are also issues that we are not aware of but are crucial. How do we discover them?

I believe that artificial intelligence will help us find these answers. I'm just trying to figure out: where do we come from? What is happening in this world? What is real existence? Do aliens really exist? Maybe they really exist. If our spacecraft can sail to other galaxies in the future, perhaps we will be able to meet aliens or discover the remains of alien civilizations that have long since died. I simply want to explore the mysteries of the universe and satisfy my curiosity.

Fink: Do you think you will be able to land on Mars in your lifetime?

Elon: Well... I would say, yes.

Fink: It’s been a long journey.

Elon: People often ask me this question, and others ask: "Are you willing to die on Mars?" My answer is: "Yes, but only if I don't die at the moment of landing."

Fink: That’s a great answer.

Fink: Okay, our time is up. I hope that today’s conversation can help you all gain something. There are many rumors and myths about Elon Musk. But I can tell you that he is a very good friend and I can always learn a lot from him. I am inspired by what he has accomplished, who he is as a person, and his vision for the future. I believe that the future he describes is a bright future, and I am as optimistic about the future as he is. Elon, thank you! Is there anything else you would like to say to everyone at the end?

Elon: Well... the last thing I want to say to everyone is: I hope everyone can stay optimistic and look forward to the future.

Fink: Well said.

Elon: And generally speaking, from the perspective of improving the quality of life, being an optimistic person, even if you make mistakes occasionally, is far better than being a pessimist who is always right.

Fink: Okay, let’s end today’s conversation with this sentence.